Is the next bear market bottom for Bitcoin between $55,000 and $70,000? Chain data indicates a cyclical pattern.

As everyone is focusing on how far the Bitcoin bullish market will rise, it is also important to prepare for “how far it will fall”. Based on multiple on-chain indicators and past cycle patterns, I calculated with data when the next bear market will hit its bottom.

History Repeats Itself: The Bottom Price Law Indicated by the Cycle Model

The Bitcoin cycle model captures the past bear market lows with astonishing accuracy. The lows of $160 in 2015, $3,200 in 2018, and $15,500 at the end of 2022 — all align with the model's “cycle low” line. Currently, that line is around $43,000, which will serve as the benchmark for the next low.

The Reason Why the Decline is Becoming Smaller Each Time

When looking at the MVRV ratio (market value ÷ realized value), during the bear market bottom, the Bitcoin price has always fallen to about 75% (0.75 times) of the average acquisition cost. Interestingly, the maximum decline during bear markets has been decreasing year by year:

• Initial cycle: up to 88% decline
• 2018: Reduced to 80%
• 2022: Compressed to 75%

Applying this trend, the next bear market may be limited to a retracement of around 70%. The inflow of institutional investors and the maturation of the market are mitigating volatility.

Target Price for the Bear Market in 2027

First, where will the current bullish market peak? Based on past data, the peak is around 2.5 times the average acquisition cost—that is, the point where the realized price has more than doubled. If this rule continues, there is a possibility that the peak will be around 180,000 dollars at the end of 2025.

Applying the cyclical rule of “the bottom is one year after the peak” and a 70% drop, the bottom price in 2027 is in the $55,000 to $60,000 zone. Interestingly, this level perfectly matches last year's box consolidation range.

Mining costs support prices

The unit cost of Bitcoin mining (including electricity costs) has become an important foundation for long-term value. Since the cost doubles with each halving, the bottom price is always pushed upwards.

The current mining cost is about 70,000 dollars. When it falls below this level, miners tend to reduce mining, creating historical buying opportunities. This is why bullish rebounds occur every time the price approaches this line after the halving in April 2024.

Conclusion: The next cycle will be more gradual.

Every cycle, there are people saying “this time is different,” but data does not lie about periodicity. The entry of institutional investors and financialization has changed the market structure, but the cyclicality itself has not disappeared.

The adjustment to the $55,000 to $70,000 zone is a sign that the market is maturing. It's not a system collapse, just a simple cyclical rhythm.