Regarding the Fed’s rate cut in December, I actually think that’s just the beginning of a major downturn.

Over the past few years, despite high interest rates and quantitative tightening, the US stock market was still able to rally mainly because leverage shifted from the Fed to Wall Street, with carry trades injecting liquidity.
Currently, in the first phase of rate cuts, liquidity contraction from carry trade unwinding will far exceed any liquidity injection.
The December rate cut will only accelerate the pace of carry trade unwinding. Once the unwinding is complete and the Fed smoothly takes over the leverage and initiates emergency rate cuts to rescue the market, that’s when real liquidity will enter the market—and that will be the true bottom-buying opportunity.