Is the XRP Spot ETF coming soon? Is it really going to happen this time?

Key Points Overview:

• Multiple institutions have filed for XRP ETFs (WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital)
• The probability of approval by the end of this year is increasing.
• Market expectations have been hyped - XRP has risen over 310% in the past 3 months.

What is an XRP ETF and why has it suddenly become so popular?

In simple terms, the XRP ETF is a product that allows you to buy XRP in a traditional stock account. No need to download a wallet, remember a private key, or worry about the exchange running away—it's as simple as buying stocks.

Why is there suddenly so much attention now?

Three reasons combined:

1. Regulatory signs seem to be loosening

   • The Ripple vs SEC case had a favorable ruling in 2023 (XRP sales on the secondary market are not considered securities)
   • SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may be stepping down
   • The new government's attitude is more pro-crypto

2. XRP itself is gaining momentum

   • Ripple is promoting the RLUSD stablecoin (approved by the New York Department of Financial Services)
   • There are over 300 financial institutions users in the network.
   • The market capitalization is already the 3rd largest cryptocurrency (about 137 billion USD)

3. Retail investors are inspired by the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

   • BTC Spot ETF (launching in January 2024) raises $52 billion in six months
   • The ETH spot ETF (launching in May 2024) has also attracted 7 billion USD.
   • “What about XRP? We should also get a slice of the pie.”

Which big players have already entered the XRP ETF?

What will happen to XRP after the ETF approval? Data compared to BTC and ETH.

If History Repeats Itself:

• Institutional Entry: After the launch of the BTC ETF, it attracted over $100 billion, while ETH is at the $10 billion level.
• Active Trading: BTC ETF had a weekly highest net inflow of 25 billion USD
• Market Expectations: Analysts predict that XRP could rise to between $6 and $20 (currently around $2.7).
• Realistic Risks: These are predictions, with a considerable degree of speculation, requiring caution.

In comparison:

The lack of futures tools is crucial — Regulatory authorities usually require a mature futures market before they are willing to approve spot ETFs, which may delay the approval process for the XRP ETF.

Advantages and Pitfalls of Investing in XRP ETF

Benefits of buying XRP ETF

✅ Low Threshold — Buy with a regular stock account, no need to mess with wallets

✅ Safety — SEC regulation, assets are custodied in formal institutions, no need to worry about exchange crashes.

✅ Simple Tax Reporting — ETFs will help you generate tax forms, unlike holding coins directly where you have to calculate it yourself.

✅ Professional Management — Fund companies handle the details, individuals can relax.

✅ High Liquidity — Can sell anytime during stock market trading hours without waiting for a counterparty.

Risks to be aware of

❌ Highly Volatile — XRP can fluctuate by 10-30% in a single day, and ETFs follow suit. In 2023, there was a week where it rose by 70% and then plummeted.

❌ Regulatory Risk — The SEC's appeal case has not yet reached a final conclusion, and a new ruling in the future could reverse the current decision.

❌ Tracking Deviation — An annual management fee of 0.5-1.5% must be paid, which will erode returns in the long run.

❌ Liquidity Risk — If XRP trading volume suddenly decreases, the ETF may find it difficult to effectively create and redeem.

When can we buy XRP ETF?

Optimistic expectation: There is a probability of approval by the end of 2025.

Key Variables:

• Final ruling on the SEC appeal case (hearing expected in January)
• The attitude of the new chairman after Gary Gensler's departure
• Did CME launch XRP futures (this would expedite approval)
• Will Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin be able to launch smoothly (debut on December 17)?

Core Logic: Improved policy environment + Mature futures instruments + Strong market demand = Increased probability of ETF approval

How to invest in the bottom line?

1. This is a high-risk product — XRP itself is highly volatile, and with regulatory uncertainty, do not invest emergency funds.

2. Wait for official news — It hasn't been approved yet, don't be fooled by the promotion of “approval coming soon”.

3. If you buy, do your homework — Regularly pay attention to SEC updates, Ripple news, and market data.

4. Diversify Risk — Don't go all-in, you can combine it with other assets.

In short, the XRP ETF is indeed on the way, but there are certainly variables. Stay alert and don't get caught up in FOMO emotions.