BTC under heavy pressure tests the $100,000 mark amid a $130 million liquidation wave

Key Data Snapshot:

📊 BTC current price: $103,667, down 3.3% in 24h
💵 US Dollar Index (DXY): 99.886 (approaching a 3-month high)
🔴 24h liquidation volume: $1.3 billion
📉 Expected downside target: $100,000 (current downside potential ~2.6%)

Pressure Comes from Several Directions:

1. US Dollar Appreciation Packs a Punch
The US Dollar Index has hit a 3-month high, which is a negative for yield-less digital assets. Institutional capital tends to shift toward USD-denominated assets for real returns.

2. ETFs Seeing Synchronized Redemptions
US spot BTC ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.15 billion over the past 3 days—meaning the previous “institutional buy-the-dip” buffer is gone, so retail selling now hits the market directly.

3. On-Chain Signals Flashing Warnings
Glassnode data shows that large buyers’ cost basis is around $104K. After BTC fell below this price, they started cutting losses. Short-term holders are now fully in the red—if both groups sell together, that’s an acceleration signal for the drop.

4. Leverage Liquidations Trigger a Chain Reaction
$1.3 billion in liquidations exploded in 24h, forming a “self-reinforcing selling spiral”: price drops → stop-losses triggered → more selling → deeper declines.

Key Market Watch: US Economic Data Week

This week, the US will release major economic indicators like ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, and Non-Farm Payrolls. If data beats expectations → USD keeps appreciating → BTC under pressure; otherwise, a rebound is possible. The Fed’s stance is also crucial—a hawkish signal means rates may not be cut, which is bearish for the crypto market.

Bottom Line Expectation:
If technicals keep deteriorating, $100K is the next support level. Below that could be the previous support zone. But this process might be boring—not a waterfall crash, but a slow, grinding decline.