Structurally, this round of adjustment has three layers of logic:
1️⃣ Macro Trigger - Trump's new tariff policy has caused global risk assets to resonate downward, and cryptocurrencies, as high Beta assets, are naturally the first to be affected. 2️⃣ Liquidity Collapse - The funding rates for perpetual contracts are persistently positive, and with leverage stacking, the liquidation chain reaction amplifies the decline when prices go down. 3️⃣ "Healthy Violence" in the Deleveraging Process - The mid-term trends of ETH and BTC remain (institutional inflows, ETF holdings, on-chain capital flows have not reversed), but the short-term high positions have been quickly corrected.
Next, we will see if the market can stabilize in the BTC 105,000 and ETH 3.6–3.8k range; we will also observe whether ETF inflows and funding rates return to neutral. If there is a rebound with increased volume and a cooling of leverage, this "washout" could instead mark the starting point for the next wave.
My suggestion: Do less heroics and more surviving. Don't think about bottom fishing at the lowest point, but rather focus on the turning points of emotions—wait until the panic indicators stabilize, the funding rates return to zero, and the USDe stabilizes back to its peg, then that will be the "real opportunity."
The market never loses to the price, but to the reaction. Staying calm, observing, buying in batches, and holding cash is the strongest strategy right now. #BTC #ETH #CryptoCrash
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Structurally, this round of adjustment has three layers of logic:
1️⃣ Macro Trigger - Trump's new tariff policy has caused global risk assets to resonate downward, and cryptocurrencies, as high Beta assets, are naturally the first to be affected.
2️⃣ Liquidity Collapse - The funding rates for perpetual contracts are persistently positive, and with leverage stacking, the liquidation chain reaction amplifies the decline when prices go down.
3️⃣ "Healthy Violence" in the Deleveraging Process - The mid-term trends of ETH and BTC remain (institutional inflows, ETF holdings, on-chain capital flows have not reversed), but the short-term high positions have been quickly corrected.
Next, we will see if the market can stabilize in the BTC 105,000 and ETH 3.6–3.8k range; we will also observe whether ETF inflows and funding rates return to neutral. If there is a rebound with increased volume and a cooling of leverage, this "washout" could instead mark the starting point for the next wave.
My suggestion:
Do less heroics and more surviving. Don't think about bottom fishing at the lowest point, but rather focus on the turning points of emotions—wait until the panic indicators stabilize, the funding rates return to zero, and the USDe stabilizes back to its peg, then that will be the "real opportunity."
The market never loses to the price, but to the reaction. Staying calm, observing, buying in batches, and holding cash is the strongest strategy right now.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoCrash