$BTC Black Swan BTC fall of 20,000, Ethereum fall of nearly k, altcoins collectively fell by 50%. Observing many people's analysis and opinions on this big dump, most viewpoints are actually quite similar.

We also carried out some thoughts and potential scenarios for the future market:
The main reason for the fall is the sudden outbreak of macro government risks. The cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to changes in macro sentiment, becoming a hard-hit area in this round of sell-off. This was followed by panic selling, which further led to a death spiral. During the market decline, a large number of highly leveraged long contracts were forcibly liquidated, forming a "fall → liquidation → further fall" death spiral. The decoupling of USDE is both a result and a catalyst of market panic and liquidity exhaustion, triggering a chain reaction and amplifying effects.
Everyone is talking about the poor liquidity in the crypto space, but they don't understand what poor really means. This black swan event is a substantive feedback of the liquidity crisis.
When Ether fell to around 3500, there was about ten minutes of sideways movement, with a volatility of around 200 points every minute. This area had a lot of liquidity. Why did the death spiral stop here and not continue downward? Who was supporting the market here? And after a significant amount of transactions, why was there still a volatility of 200 points up and down? The main players also don't want high-leverage bulls to easily get in at the tip, and the traces of market control are quite obvious. As for the altcoins collectively plunging 90%, the order depth was worse, and the sell orders formed by the long positions being liquidated were instantly crushed.
What we are more concerned about is that Ethereum around 3400 to 3500 is very likely to form the next strong support, but if the overall trend really goes down, the support point cannot go against the trend. Additionally, if the current liquidity continues to be negative, will it trigger a death spiral once again? The lack of liquidity in altcoins is due to the inaction of market makers and their deliberate attempts to profit from retail traders' slippage.
In fact, we don’t really like to analyze past articles; we are more focused on how to proceed in the future. Most people won’t look for the reasons behind the altcoin rises and falls because they already know that altcoins are purely for harvesting, just like we won’t look for the reasons behind the crypto market rises and falls.