In less than 9 hours, the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference will arrive, which is the most crucial event determining the direction of the global market for the foreseeable future, without exception.

The market has almost fully priced in a rate cut in September, with the focus on three aspects:
Interest Rate Decision: A cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points? In line with expectations or exceeding expectations?

Dot Matrix: What guidance is there for interest rate cuts this year and beyond?

Powell's speech: Is the tone "dovish" (implying continued rate cuts) or "hawkish" (emphasizing data dependence and caution)?

Currently, the market's technical aspect is characterized by shrinking volume, fluctuations, and convergence, which is a typical "stifled" state before major events. On the daily level, the trend remains bullish, but the momentum is slowing down. After the MACD golden cross, the contraction and reduced volume in the upward movement indicate that buying power at the current position is somewhat hesitant, and the market is waiting for a new catalyst to determine whether to continue the upward attack or undergo a deep correction.

In the short term, the market is highly dependent on the Fed's decision, and it is expected that there will be narrow fluctuations before the decision, with the range of volatility narrowing.

In a bullish scenario, a 50 basis point rate cut (beyond expectations) or a press conference releasing more dovish signals would be a huge boost for the market. BTC will surge upwards, directly challenging the previous high target of $124,000, and may even embark on a new journey towards $130,000.

In a bearish scenario, with only a 25 basis point rate cut and Powell's cautious attitude, this will constitute a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" negative realization. BTC is likely to see a significant pullback, testing the support strength in the $113,500 - $115,000 region. If it breaks below, it may drop to $110,000.