Bitcoin is facing the largest "bearish" trend in the upcycle.

According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, the 26.62% correction from the historical peak of 109,500 USD down to 79,235 USD is on track to become the deepest drop in the current bull run. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has experienced more severe corrections, such as an 83% decline after the peak in 2018 and a 73% drop after the ATH in 2022. Compared to these declines, the current correction is still relatively milder, although the scale is still significant.

However, according to the macro data and cryptocurrency platform ecoinometrics, Bitcoin may face difficulties if it wants to recover immediately. Analysts explain: “History shows that when the Nasdaq 100 index falls below the long-term average annual return, Bitcoin tends to slow down its growth and faces the risk of deeper corrections.” With the Nasdaq 100 currently moving sideways compared to the same period last year, the recovery prospects for Bitcoin may be constrained, even as the corrective phase pauses.

The recent decline has also put Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy on the defensive. During the period from March 31 to April 6, the company did not make any BTC purchases for its treasury. According to data from Strategytracker, the total cost of purchasing BTC by the company has reached 35.65 billion USD, but currently only yields a modest profit of 17% over a 5-year holding period. Will Bitcoin hold the 70,000 USD mark? On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has just tested the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA 50 – the blue line) for the first time since September 2024. In previous cycles, closing the weekly candle below the EMA 50 has often been a signal to start a bear market (. The nearest support level is at 74,000 USD – the old peak at the beginning of 2024. However, a stronger demand zone may be around 65,000 – 69,000 USD – which is also the historical peak in 2021 – considered an important liquidity area. The )Relative Strength Index( on the weekly chart of Bitcoin has hit a low of 43 since January 2023 at the end of Q1. During the periods of August 2023 and September 2024, the RSI recovered from this level and triggered a price recovery. However, if the RSI continues to fall below 40 like in 2022, the bears may completely dominate. Trader Rekt Capital also predicts based on daily RSI data: “The daily RSI trend in the current cycle indicates that the bottom of this correction may lie within the range from the current price level to around ~70,000 USD.”