06:08
Bitcoin rebound relies on "shadow chairman" expectations: weaker dollar and December rate cut bets become core drivers
Bitcoin’s current rebound is being driven by macroeconomic expectations, particularly speculation about the future leadership of the Federal Reserve and bets on a rate cut in December. As traders have raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month to around 80%, the US dollar has fallen for nine consecutive days, significantly easing financial conditions and supporting Bitcoin’s recovery from November’s volatility. BTC has rebounded from the $84,000–$87,000 range to around $93,000.
Market attention is shifting from Powell’s existing policies to the future direction of the Federal Reserve after his term ends in May 2026. According to a Reuters report, the Trump administration plans to announce a new chair nominee in early 2026, with candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. Although these candidates currently do not affect policy votes, the “shadow chairman” effect has already begun to guide yields and the dollar’s trajectory through expectations, thereby indirectly influencing sentiment in the crypto market.
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