Glassnode: Is the Bitcoin rebound just a dead cat bounce? Where is the key pressure level?

Glassnode’s latest report indicates that although the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) back above $70,000, comparing the spot price with key on-chain pricing models shows that the market is structurally still in a bear-market range. However, as ETF funds gradually return and leverage in derivatives is unwound, the market is transitioning toward a more balanced structure; in the short term, the magnitude of downside may be relatively limited, while resistance levels above are gradually strengthening.

Bitcoin rebounds to $72,000; $78,000 will be near-term resistance

Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the energy, stocks, and Bitcoin markets have gone through weeks of high uncertainty. But after the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, a wave of optimism swept across global financial markets. WTI crude oil prices fell, and Bitcoin (BTC) rose as much as 5% to $72,841, the highest level in the past three weeks.

Glassnode’s report compares spot prices with key on-chain pricing models and finds that the market is structurally still in a bear-market range. The real market average is currently at $78,000, and when the Bitcoin price rebounds back into that zone, it may face strong sell-pressure from recent buyers.

Bitcoin ETF fund flows gradually turn positive; demand has not fully returned

U.S. spot ETF fund flows have begun to improve. After a long period of outflows, the 14-day average has turned into a modest net inflow. Although the size of this change is still relatively small, the directional significance is substantial.

If inflows continue to increase, they will provide stronger support for the market. But for now, it looks more like early market stabilization rather than a full-scale return of institutional demand.

Derivatives trading activity remains sluggish—watch whether market momentum restarts

Futures trading activity has fallen sharply, reflecting a clear decline in participation in the derivatives market.

This slowdown coincided with a significant drop in open interest, further confirming that leverage is not only being unwound, but that traders are stepping back rather than immediately re-entering. Trading volume during the recent rebound has been lackluster, indicating that confidence behind this rebound is limited. At the same time, the decline in implied volatility for options also suggests insufficient market confidence.

Watching for a rebound in futures trading volume afterward and a thaw in the options market will be early signals that market momentum may begin to rebuild.

This article, Glassnode: Bitcoin’s rebound is only a dead cat bounce? Where are the key pressure levels? first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.