BlockBeats message, April 8. QCP released a market view saying that, impacted by the U.S. and Iran reaching a two-week ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin rebounded to above $71,000, but the ceasefire is conditional and has not led to a durable resolution. The options market shows that this round of rally is more like an event-driven squeeze. In the front end, BTC implied volatility has fallen, but skew has deepened, and demand for downside put options remains strong. The term structure stays in contango, indicating the market has not given up on hedging.
QCP believes that the current caution in the market is reasonable. Recent attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have shown that even if shipping resumes, the risk of disruption remains ongoing. The macro situation is still highly intertwined. U.S. employment data has rebounded, but underlying labor indicators are weakening, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh between sluggish economic growth and energy-driven inflation re-accelerating. This week’s Consumer Price Index will be the next key test.
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