"End-of-day report"机构实地考察：霍尔木兹海峡进入「热战与商业外交并行」新阶段

BlockBeats message, April 6. The author of the “End-of-Day Report,” Citrini Research, released a “Field Inspection Report on the Strait of Hormuz.” It is said that Citrini Research dispatched an analyst fluent in four languages (including Arabic) to conduct an on-site inspection in the center of the Strait of Hormuz by boat, in order to assess the strait’s actual situation.

Citrini Research’s analyst said that investors should abandon the binary thinking of “open/close.” The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is more complex: the hot war and commercial diplomacy are proceeding in parallel, and traffic volumes are expected to gradually recover as the conflict continues. What is happening cannot be simply judged as “conflict escalation/de-escalation” or “strait opening/closing.” The United States is carrying out military actions, while its allies (such as France, Japan, and Greece) are actively negotiating with Iran over shipping rights. This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world.

At present, Iran has established a functional shipping inspection station between Qeshm Island and Larak Island. All approved traffic is routed through Iran’s territorial waters (rather than traditional shipping lanes). Vessels or the countries they belong to contact Iran via intermediaries, submit information such as ownership, cargo, and crew, and pay transit fees. After review, a confirmation code is issued, and they are escorted through. Unapproved vessels are left waiting.

The analyst said that Iran’s position is “not looking to close the strait.” Its goal is to establish a sovereign system similar to Turkey’s management of the Bosphorus Strait. While controlling navigation and charging fees, it would allow commercial traffic to operate, shape itself as a responsible manager of global trade, and isolate the United States.

And the demand that Iran open the strait does not include charging fees, while also conducting military strikes. But a complete closure of the strait would lead to a global economic disaster (current estimates of the net loss in global commercial crude oil inventories are about 10.6 million barrels per day). Most other countries (a list that is rapidly expanding, including China, India, Russia, Japan, France, and Malaysia, among others) choose to strike deals with Iran to secure their own energy supply.

The analyst expects that as the conflict continues, traffic through the strait will recover. The process will be chaotic, and the vessels that get through will be mainly LPG tankers and smaller product tankers, while large tankers such as VLCCs will still be fewer. This is not enough to prevent a global economic collision, but it is far better than a complete closure. However, Iran is actively constraining the Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea/the Strait of Mandeb, using it as an escalation card that has not yet been played.

Whether the strait is open or not, freight rates will stay high. Oil tanker stocks may not have peaked (e.g., BWET). The U.S. Federal Reserve may see through the impact of the conflict, and there is room for rate-cut expectations to move forward again—meaning that rate cuts may come earlier than what the current market is pricing. There is further room for this “early” expectation to expand even more.