BlockBeats message, April 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted, stating, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a composite indicator used to gauge how aggressively the derivatives market is going long/short, reflecting the current real opening direction of participants in the futures market. This index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when Bitcoin was at $73,925; since then, it has continued to decline, and today it has fallen to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d falling in tandem with market prices, further confirming that the market structure has weakened.
The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued rising; as of today, it has reached 18.6%. This means the market continues to generate forced liquidations on the long side, without allowing the structure to recover. A red histogram dominated by short liquidations has not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains at a high level and the clearly red histogram does not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation equilibrium is starting to recover.
A reversal in both indicators occurs in sync, mutually corroborating each other. Bitcoin’s price has already fallen by about 11% from the peak of $74,883; currently, there is no basis in the derivatives market structure that supports a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs are continuously cleared, and a short squeeze is nearly nowhere to be seen. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if liquidation-forcing pressure persists, and the held-position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downside pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify accordingly."
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC 15-minute drop of 0.54%: Liquidity worsens and whales actively reduce positions, putting short-term pressure on the market
From 22:15 to 22:30 (UTC) on 2026-04-14, BTC saw a short-term pullback of 0.54% within the high-range band of 73911.6 - 74314.4 USDT, with a return of -0.54%. During this period, market swings were evident, volatility intensified, attention from the market quickly increased, and downward pressure on the order book was prominent.
The main drivers behind this unusual move were the continued deterioration of market liquidity and a clear lack of order book depth, which made the BTC price extremely sensitive to large sell orders. At the same time, during the key time window, whale wallets carried out large transfers and also engaged in active de-risking,
GateNews31m ago
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC CME Gap Near $69,500, Tron Expands USDT Utility, and APEMARS Stage ...
The crypto market is heating up again, are you ready for the next big move? With the latest Bitcoin price prediction signaling potential upside and major ecosystems like Tron expanding utility, investors are actively searching for the next breakout opportunity and the best crypto presale. Timing
BlockChainReporter40m ago
Goldman Sachs Files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF with SEC
Goldman Sachs has applied to the SEC to launch a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, marking its entry into the Bitcoin ETF market. This follows Morgan Stanley's recent launch of a similar product, highlighting growth in institutional Bitcoin yield-focused investments.
GateNews4h ago
BTC 跌破 74000 USDT
Gate News bot 消息，Gate 行情显示，BTC 跌破 74000 USDT，现价 73999.9 USDT。
CryptoRadar4h ago
BTC drops 0.75% in 15 minutes: quick pullback triggered by short-term position trimming and capital outflows
2026-04-14 16:45 to 17:00 (UTC), the BTC market saw a clear ups-and-downs move, with a 15-minute return of -0.75%. The price quickly dropped from the 74529.4 to 75233.4 USDT range, with an amplitude of 0.94%. During this period, trading volume increased by about 12% compared with the average of the prior hour; market attention rose, and volatility significantly intensified.
The main drivers of this sudden move were short-term holders collectively cutting positions and a large outflow of exchange funds. From 16:45 to 17:00, the net outflow of BTC was approximately 4,800 BTC
GateNews6h ago
