Solana critical turning point approaching! 37.7 million tokens of sell pressure is piling up, is SOL set to replicate a 21% surge or fall toward $64?

Gate News update: Solana’s price has recently remained in a ranging pattern. On April 1, it hovered around $84, returning to early-March levels. Although the trend lacks a clear direction, multiple technical indicators suggest that the current structure is highly similar to the phase before the 21% rally that began in early March. The market is starting to watch whether another strong rebound will occur.

From a technical perspective, on the 8-hour timeframe, SOL is still within a head-and-shoulders top structure, with the right shoulder forming. Meanwhile, the “Smart Money Index” (SMI) is approaching the signal line. After a similar crossover on March 10, the price surged rapidly within several days. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a hidden bullish divergence: the price is making higher lows while the indicator is weakening, which is often viewed as a potential rebound signal.

However, sell pressure overhead has become the biggest variable. On-chain data shows that a dense supply of positions, totaling about 37.7 million SOL, is concentrated in the $85 to $88 range. This means that for every step higher the price takes, it may run into profit-taking sell orders from traders looking to exit break-even positions, which could weaken upward momentum. If this supply in the zone cannot be absorbed effectively, the room for a rebound will be limited.

On key levels, if SOL holds above $84.95, it will test the first sell-pressure zone. A break above $87.38 would indicate that some of the selling pressure has been absorbed. The true trend confirmation level is $89.82. Once it stabilizes and closes above that level, the market structure would shift toward the bulls, and it may even retest the $97.75 high.

Conversely, if the price continues to get rejected and breaks below the $78.77 neckline, the head-and-shoulders top pattern would be activated, and the theoretical downside target would point to the $64 area. The market is currently in a direction-selection phase, and the short-term trend will depend on whether capital can break through the dense supply band.