Satoshi Nakamoto's Bet Soars to 15%: Why the Prediction Market is Watching the Bitcoin Creator's Moves

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Polymarket Betting Surges: What Is the Market Worried About?

Image: https://polymarket.com/event/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2025?tid=1762401701416

In late October 2025, the prediction platform Polymarket saw a sharp rise in bets on whether “Satoshi Nakamoto will move any Bitcoin in 2025.” The probability spiked from 2% to around 15%, signaling a shift in market sentiment from “almost impossible” to “maybe it could happen.” As of November 6 (UTC), the odds had retreated to 4%.

This surge wasn’t without reason. On-chain data shows that some early wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto were recently relabeled. This relabeling alone sparked investor curiosity and speculation.

Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? How Much Bitcoin Does He Own?

Image: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto

Satoshi Nakamoto is the anonymous creator of Bitcoin. In 2008, he published the white paper “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” He launched the Bitcoin network in 2009. Blockchain analysis estimates he controls about 1.1 million Bitcoins, worth over $100 billion. Because these coins have remained untouched since Bitcoin’s early days, they are considered the “holy grail” of dormant crypto assets.

Any activity from these addresses can instantly move market expectations.

Why Is 2025 a “Key Year”?

Analysts consider 2025 the intersection of policy and cryptocurrency market cycles.

• Bitcoin’s halving will reduce new supply, pushing the market into a new supply-demand dynamic.
• Institutional capital is increasing investments in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• Inflation and digital asset regulations worldwide remain in flux.

If Satoshi Nakamoto acts during this period, the symbolic impact would be massive and could fundamentally reshape market confidence.

Polymarket’s Betting Mechanism: A Market-Based Prediction Model

Polymarket is a blockchain-powered prediction market, letting users wager on future events by putting real crypto assets behind their forecasts. For the “Will Satoshi move Bitcoin” market:

• Those betting “yes” believe Satoshi Nakamoto will finally break his silence.
• Those betting “no” think he has exited for good.

As more money enters the market, the odds adjust dynamically, reflecting the crowd’s collective pricing of potential risk.

What Happens If Satoshi Nakamoto Initiates a Transaction?

• Price shock: 1.1 million Bitcoins represent over 5% of global circulating supply. Even a small transfer could trigger major price swings.
• Psychological effect: The sudden movement of assets by a long-silent founder could signal a loss of confidence, sparking market panic.
• Speculation: In the short term, the market might drop then rebound, with some investors seeing it as a buying opportunity.

How Should New Investors Approach This Bet?

• Stay rational: Polymarket’s probabilities reflect market sentiment, not facts. A 15% chance suggests rising uncertainty, but it’s not a sure thing.
• Focus on signals, not hype: These events provide great opportunities to learn market logic, rather than engage in blind speculation.
• Watch on-chain activity: Instead of guessing, learn to track wallet movements and interpret market indicators.

Conclusion: The Legend Lives On

Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity remains shrouded in mystery, and speculation about his possible moves is once again stirring up the crypto market. No matter how the bets play out, this episode serves as a reminder that the crypto market is more than a price game. It’s an ongoing experiment in trust, technology, and human nature.