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These past two years, oracles have actually been quite awkward.
Prediction markets are very popular, with increasing trading volume, but the layer that actually determines the outcome has been criticized all along.
UMA's mechanism was originally designed to solve subjective issues, such as events that can't be judged by price. But in practice, the problems are quite obvious—voting power is concentrated, and it ultimately becomes a few people who can sway the results.
So later, Polymarket also started integrating Chainlink, at least for price-based markets, to settle using more reliable data sources.
But Chainlink itself also has its own issues. It has already reached the top in DeFi, with most of its revenue still relying on traditional price feeds, and new growth points are slowly being explored.
Plus, projects like Pyth, which handle high-frequency data, are starting to penetrate markets like stocks and commodities.
The current situation is more like:
Different types of data are assigned to different oracles for processing.
Subjective issues follow one logic, price data another, and high-frequency markets yet another.
Oracles are no longer about who is the strongest, but who is more suitable for a particular type of result.
Looking at it from the other side, it’s actually quite realistic—
In the end, the on-chain world may not have a single source of truth at all.
#Polymarket