Wintermute: Ceasefire trading is dead, the market has returned to an upward trend, and the Strait's confirmed reopening may help push Bitcoin above $75k.

Mars Finance News reports that Wintermute said that the market went through two clear phases last week: in the first half of the week, driven by expectations of a ceasefire, the Nasdaq rose 4.5%, Bitcoin rose 2.6%, and the VIX fell below 20. By the weekend, the Islamabad talks broke down; the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude oil surged 8% in a single day, returning above $103, and risk assets gave back their gains.

On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 2.6%, slightly below expectations. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than broad-based inflation. Asian markets fell slightly overnight, while Nasdaq futures held steady. The market’s reaction to each new piece of information is weakening; the market may have already priced in the worst-case scenario, or it may be growing complacent.

On crypto assets: Bitcoin finished last week up 2.6%, but did not lead the rally. Prices have been consolidating in the $65,000–$73,000 range for more than two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows of $327 million this year. Open interest in perpetual contracts remains stable in the $28–$30 billion range. Gamma exposure from options trading in the $68,000–$72,000 range implies that hedging activity will amplify two-way volatility within that range.

Wintermute believes ceasefire trading is dead, and the market has returned to an escalation phase. However, the market’s response function is weakening. Confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen could push Bitcoin above $75,000; ongoing escalation keeps prices oscillating within a range with a downward bias. Earnings season may shift some of the market’s attention back to fundamentals, which could change positioning behavior at the edges of the range.