Extreme panic for 20 consecutive days + BTC strongly breaks through $70K, but the "quality of the rise" is questionable

Techub News｜2026.04.08 Comprehensive In-Depth Research Report on the Crypto Market

Against the rare backdrop of 20 consecutive days of extreme fear hovering over the market, on April 8, 2026, the crypto market saw the most dramatic one-day reversal of this cycle. At around midnight, BTC strongly broke through the key psychological level of $70k, peaking near $72,000. The intraday gain reached 4.35%, closing at $71,609. ETH strengthened in parallel, up 5.99% to $2,234.52, while SOL rose 5.91%, with major assets rebounding across the board. The total crypto market capitalization across the entire market rebounded to $2.520 trillion, up 3.57% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index rebounded sharply from 11 to 17—still within the extreme fear zone, but marking the largest single-day improvement in nearly three weeks, strongly resonating with the price breakout. This rally was driven by a double effect: short squeeze and cooling macro risk. However, there are clear structural risks. The Federal Reserve’s March FOMC minutes to be released later today will become the core variable determining the near-term trend.

At the market structure level, the most prominent feature of this rebound is derivatives-led action, with spot market lagging. The total liquidation amount across the entire market over 24 hours reached $600.87 million, a 150.64% surge versus the prior day. Of this, short liquidations were $431 million, accounting for as much as 71.7%, the largest short squeeze size in the past 30 days. BTC’s break above $70,000 triggered concentrated stop-loss orders, forcing a large number of shorts to close positions, creating a short-term accelerated行情 of “longs actively pushing up + shorts passively covering.” Meanwhile, funding rates saw a sharp reversal. BTC’s OI-weighted funding rate flipped from -0.0020% to +0.0045%; ETH moved from -0.0052% to +0.0052%. In multiple exchanges, funding rates touched the +0.01% upper limit, indicating rapidly warming long sentiment—but also planting the risk of short-term overheating. The total open interest (OI) across the market rose to $112.27 billion, up 6.91% over 24 hours, showing that leverage via funding has become active again.

What diverges from the strong price action is ETF fund flows

On April 7, BTC spot ETF net outflows totaled $141.94 million. Among them, FBTC outflow was $47.85 million and GBTC outflow was $41.89 million. Even amid a sharp rise in prices, institutional spot capital still showed signs of exiting. Historical data indicates that derivatives-driven rallies lacking ETF funding support typically have weaker sustainability. Whether it can turn into net inflows next is a core indicator for judging trend continuation. Currently, BTC ETF total assets under management are $89.63 billion, with cumulative historical net inflows of $56.29 billion. The ETH ETF total size is $12.22 billion, with yesterday’s funds roughly flat. The divergence between ETF funds and price is the key structural contradiction the market needs to watch most closely.

Signals on-chain and from whales are mixed between long and short

At the beginning of April, 42,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges— the highest level since January—creating potential sell pressure. However, Strategy institutions have continued to accumulate: from April 1 to 5, they bought 4,871 BTC worth $330 million. Their current total holdings are about 767k BTC, equivalent to a market value of $53.3 billion, indicating that top institutions’ long-term conviction has not changed. As prices have rebounded, BTC network activity improved noticeably. Active addresses over 24 hours rose to 605,298, up significantly from the earlier 400,000–450k range, while the number of transactions was about 520.6k. The price increase has helped lift on-chain participation. Total network hashrate is around 966 EH/s, down 33% from the historical high. Mining difficulty is 138.97T, with the next adjustment expected on April 17. Overall, on-chain data shows a “price leads, on-chain follows” recovery pattern.

On the technical side, BTC completed a key structural transition: $70,000 has turned from a strong resistance into the first support. If it can hold this level after the Fed minutes, the next resistance would be the 50-day EMA at $72,160, and further up is the $73,000–$75,000 historical high-volume trading zone. Secondary support sits in the $68,000–$68,500 prior consolidation range. If it breaks down effectively, the rebound structure will be damaged. ETH has shown relatively stronger performance. The ETH/BTC exchange rate rose from 0.0307 to 0.0312. Support is $2,150–$2,170, resistance is $2,260–$2,300. After a breakout, it may challenge the $2,400 prior high. The market’s short-term longs are currently dominant, but trend confirmation requires waiting for the risk event to play out.

DeFi and liquidity show marginal improvement

DEX 24-hour trading volume was $6.12 billion, up 23.4% from yesterday. Uniswap V3 and V4 remain at the top, with trading activity across the market picking up. Stablecoin supply expanded: USDC saw net minting of $286.54 million over 24 hours, and USDS increased by $316.52 million, with on-chain liquidity continuing to be replenished. On public chain TVL, Ethereum leads by far at $59.74 billion, while Solana ranks fourth at $4.47 billion. As prices rise, the value locked across the whole chain also rebounds. Lending and staking yields remain stable: ETH staking-class APY is in the 2.40%–2.74% range, and stablecoin wealth-management returns top out at about 4.38%. Overall, the return structure has not shown any major changes.

The macro outlook faces a key test today

The Fed’s March FOMC minutes will be released at 14:00 Eastern Time (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9). The March meeting was “hawkish on hold,” with the 2026 inflation forecast raised to 2.7%, and the dot plot maintaining only one rate cut for the entire year. Historical data shows that 75% of the days when minutes are released have a negative impact on the crypto market, with the Sell-the-news effect being significant. In addition, Trump said that Iran negotiations are taking on a more rational posture. Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, Brent crude has pulled back from its high level, and overall risk-asset sentiment has improved. However, the crypto market will still prioritize trading the Fed policy signals.

After evaluating signals across all ten dimensions, the market’s overall score today is 5.8/10—neutral to slightly bullish, but two-way volatility risk is amplified. Multiple indicators lean bullish, including price breakout, funding reversal, on-chain recovery, and stablecoin expansion. Meanwhile, three indicators lean bearish: ETF outflows, large BTC inflows to exchanges, and the risk surrounding the Fed minutes. For the bullish thesis to hold, three conditions must be met: the minutes are neutral/dovish, BTC holds above $70,000, and ETF capital turns into net inflows. If hawkish minutes coincide with sustained ETF outflows, the market will most likely fall back to test the $68,000 support.

Today’s core market takeaway: BTC breaking above $70,000 is the result of both a short squeeze and a sentiment repair working together. The short-term structure is relatively strong, but it is not a trend-reversal signal. The Fed minutes will be the watershed. Aggressive traders may be best served by waiting and watching for signals to play out, while more cautious investors can use $70,000 and $68,000 as the trend boundary. In the medium term, watch the time window of the Jupiter–Uranus conjunction between April 9 and 11; a directional choice is likely.

Disclaimer: This report is generated by the Techub News AI research system based on publicly available data, for informational reference and research exchange only. It does not constitute any investment advice, investment solicitation, or trading guidance. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and investors should make independent decisions and bear their own risk.