SMCI vs. DELL: Mizuho Top Analyst Picks the Better AI Server Stock

FomoAnxiety · 2026-04-06T12:22:42+00:00

Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh revised ratings on Super Micro and Dell amid the AI boom, maintaining a Hold on SMCI and raising Dell's to Buy with a target of $215. Increased capex for AI servers and shifting demand favor Dell, while SMCI faces legal issues and declining shares.

FomoAnxiety

2026-04-06 12:22:42

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Mizuho Securities’ top analyst Vijay Rakesh revised his views on AI server companies Super Micro Computer SMCI +3.15% ▲ and Dell Technologies DELL +2.95% ▲ amid the ongoing AI boom. He maintained his Hold rating on SMCI, while trimming the price target from $33 to $25 (7.7% upside). On the other hand, he reiterated his Buy rating on DELL and raised his price target from $180 to a new Street-high of $215, implying 23.3% upside.

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Year-to-date, SMCI shares have plunged 20.7% amid the Department of Justice’s indictment of three SMCI employees related to smuggling of Nvidia NVDA +0.93% ▲ -backed servers to China. In contrast, DELL shares have surged about 39% amid robust CPU-driven server demand and shifting supply from SMCI due to recent issues.

Top Mizuho Analyst Is Bullish on DELL

Rakesh emphasized that AI server demand looks very strong through 2026-2027. Plus, Nvidia’s data center revenue could grow over 50% next year.

Surging AI Capex – Rakesh noted that big cloud companies (CSPs) plan to spend $689 billion on capex in 2026 (up 64% from this year), with 2027 estimates at $811 billion (up 18%). Yet he believes that the outlay could rise a lot more supported by Nvidia’s growth outlook and new AI tech like advanced chatbots boosting data usage.

Shifting Demand Trends – Although Super Micro leads in AI servers with spending tailwinds into 2027, Rakesh believes that U.S.-China trade issues could push more orders to Dell.

Dell Stands to Gain Most – Dell’s AI services team, 10x larger than rivals, has an $80-$90 billion AI sales pipeline that could grow. Overall, the AI server market is growing at 44% per year through 2029 to $862 billion. For 2029, shipments have been raised to 5.67 million units, up from prior estimate of 3.67 million.

To conclude, Rakesh remains highly optimistic about the AI server market’s future potential, with Dell winning a larger share. He is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranking #32 out of 12,128 analysts tracked. Rakesh boasts a 60% success rate and an impressive average return per rating of 44.70%.

Dell or SMCI? Which Stock Is Preferred by Analysts?

The TipRanks Stock Comparison Tool shows that Wall Street currently has a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating on DELL and a “Hold” consensus on SMCI. Analysts favor DELL for its diversified revenue (edge servers + enterprise services), stronger balance sheet, and lower exposure to geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, SMCI’s Hold reflects concerns about accounting delays, margin pressures from component costs, and ongoing DOJ scrutiny.

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