After Trump's post, the probability of the U.S. invading Iran this year on Polymarket rose to 63%.

2026-04-05 20:27:17

Golden Finance reported that on April 6, after U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks on social media, the probability of the U.S. invading Iran this year on the Polymarket prediction platform surged to 63%.
Despite the increase in probability, due to the U.S. adding troops in the region, and the Trump administration stating that it is considering taking over Iran’s main oil transportation hub—Khark Island, the probability of an invasion before 2027 is still lower than the 68% peak on March 29.
As of the time of publication of this article, the trading volume for this prediction contract is about $3.74 million.

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