Analysis: The average cost basis for BTC loss positions is $93,600, with a large number of high-level trapped positions already cut and exited.

Mars Finance news. On April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy said that the average cost basis of all loss-making Bitcoin positions is currently below $100,000; at present, it is only $93,600, which means that under the current cost-basis structure, when BTC rebounds by $93,000, it will reach the market-wide average break-even line. During two rapid sell-offs at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large amount of trapped positions bought at high prices chose to cut their losses and exit, dragging down the average cost basis of the overall unrealized loss positions—this is what is commonly referred to as “wash trade” (the so-called “washing out”). At the same time, it was observed that the average cost basis of loss-making positions and the current BTC price’s 30-day average deviation coefficient are 1.4; whereas in the past three bear-market bottom periods, the deviation coefficient was at least above 2.0 (the blue waveforms below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it means that when the market enters the absolute bottom zone, at that moment BTC’s price is only less than 50% of the “average cost basis of loss-making positions.” If this condition is to be met, then the lowest point of this BTC cycle would fall to $46,800; however, historical patterns may not always hold true. In terms of “pain level,” this bear market may be significantly lighter than any previous one. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, in the Polymarket-related market about “Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 or $80,000 first?”, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, and the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.