Matrixport: The market has entered a phase of consolidation, and it is too early to qualitatively say that the "cycle has peaked."

On November 7, Matrixport released a market outlook stating that Bitcoin has entered a phase of consolidation, with prices simultaneously facing macroeconomic and structural market pressures. As the Fed has repeatedly emphasized that it will not rush to cut interest rates or loosen policies, market expectations for rapid easing have gradually cooled, and there is a lack of new easing catalysts in the short term. Meanwhile, the dollar has stabilized and rebounded near the lows of this cycle, and since mid-summer, liquidity has marginally tightened. The strong capital inflow from the spot ETF at the beginning of the year has been largely digested, while subsequent spot buying momentum has significantly slowed. Multiple factors have combined to suppress the continuous upward movement of the market. From the perspective of the Holdings structure, the participation and risk appetite of the main buyer group have weakened concurrently. Some early large holders have chosen to take profits in batches, and the capital inflow into the spot ETF has also cooled; following several recent liquidation events, encryption-native capital has actively reduced leverage, and overall positions have become more cautious. In terms of price, Bitcoin has fallen below several key cost reference ranges. Historically, when the market is at this level, it often enters a consolidation phase rather than immediately restarting the trend. Overall, these signals are currently insufficient to support the conclusion that “this cycle has peaked,” and are more in line with the common rhythm of slowing down and consolidating seen in the later stages of a cycle. Structurally, the market is experiencing chip turnover and position contraction, creating conditions for subsequent more cost-effective allocation ranges. Looking ahead, if the global liquidity environment shifts from tight to loose, and the monetary policy paths of major central banks become clearer, it is expected to improve Bitcoin's mid-term performance in 2026 and beyond. Until then, maintaining patience remains a more prudent choice.