Crypto Market Dynamics and Outlook

Market Observation

The debate in the U.S. political arena surrounding the tax reduction bill continues to heat up, with divisions within the Republican Party intensifying, raising doubts about whether the bill can pass before July 4. Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve, calling for significant interest rate cuts, which has raised concerns in the economic community about the independence of the central bank. Despite facing numerous uncertainties, the U.S. stock market has still reached new highs, demonstrating the resilience of the market.

In the context of the accelerated integration of traditional finance and blockchain, tokenized stocks have become a new direction for development. This innovative model achieves a 1:1 anchoring of assets through blockchain, offering advantages such as round-the-clock trading and low-cost settlement. Several well-known trading platforms are rapidly laying out related services, but insufficient liquidity and lack of regulation remain major challenges. The dual drive of stablecoins and tokenized stocks is attracting more institutional funds into the market, driving the crypto market towards practical value transformation.

The Bitcoin market presents a complex situation. In a low liquidity environment over the weekend, Bitcoin broke through $108,500, approaching its historical weekly closing high. Analysts have differing views on the short-term trend; some believe that selling pressure is easing, while others point out that we may soon be entering the late stage of a bull market. Based on historical halving cycle analysis, Bitcoin could reach its bull market peak in September or October 2025, with only 2-3 months of upward movement left in the market.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, with a weekly closing price breaking through $2500. On-chain data shows a potential bullish trend, with some traders anticipating that the ETH price may reach $3000 in the near future. The Ethereum ecosystem is also becoming more active, with the token of a well-known ecosystem project surging 17.4% due to news of the development team's participation in an important meeting.

The Meme coin market is showing new trends, with a certain platform launching a Meme coin creation tool, leading to the emergence of multiple new projects. Some of these tokens have already reached a market capitalization of several million dollars. Additionally, some independent projects have also experienced strong performance, such as $MORI and $USELESS, both of which have seen significant increases, with the latter rising more than 1700% in the past month.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $108,379 (Year-to-date +15.67%), Daily trading volume $17.277 billion
• Ethereum: $2,500.45 (Year-to-date -25.2%), Daily trading volume $10.456 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 52 (Neutral)
• Market share: BTC 64.7%, ETH 9.1%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: $201 million

ETF Fund Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$5.01 billion (net inflow for 14 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$7,744,720

Important Event Preview

• A certain trading platform will exclusively launch NodeOps (NODE) on June 30.
• The Zama testnet will launch on July 1st.
• The founder of Ethereum and an executive from a certain Layer 2 project will participate in an important meeting on July 1.
• The U.S. Senate votes on key legislation (June 30)
• The governors of major central banks will hold a panel discussion (July 1)
• Multiple projects will welcome token unlocks, including OP, KMNO, ACX, SUI, etc.

Market Hotspots

• Data shows that multiple projects are about to welcome large token unlocks.
• This week, the macroeconomic focus is on non-farm payroll data.
• Singapore requires unlicensed exchanges to cease operations by June 30.
• The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is high.
• The launch of a new feature by a well-known exchange has attracted attention.
• A survey in South Korea shows that the ownership rate and investment willingness in the crypto market are relatively high.
• The RWA market has seen significant growth, becoming a rapidly developing emerging field.
• Well-known venture capital continues to increase holdings of a certain leading exchange's tokens
• Institutional investors continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin
• New project announced tokenomics model
• Industry insiders advise increasing the proportion of cryptocurrencies in investment portfolios.