Ethereum price breaks through $2,827 to hit a new 15-week high, the market experiences an intense Bull vs Bear Battle.

On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through $2,827, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this breakthrough, a liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions is brewing. In this seemingly coincidental market movement, the trading patterns of a mysterious large player have become a key clue to interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, a certain anonymous address has completed two precise operations within 44 days:

• April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, costing $54.9 million;
• May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, making a profit of $23.73 million, with a yield of 43%;
• June 10: Sold 30,000 ETH again for $82.76 million, locking in a profit of $7.3 million, with a total profit of $31 million.

Such operations are not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest (OI) has first broken the 40 billion USD mark, and the market leverage ratio is approaching a critical point. The current liquidity distribution presents a subtle balance: there is a long liquidation risk of 2 billion USD concentrated around 2,600 USD, while there is a short liquidation risk of 1.8 billion USD lurking above 2,900 USD. This bull vs bear battle is reminiscent of the CDO market during the financial crisis—any directional breakout could trigger a chain reaction.

As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses surged by 70%, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, a certain Layer 2 network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses), becoming the growth engine, far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This "Layer 2 feeding back to the mainnet" model is completely different from the narrative logic of the DeFi summer of the 2020s.

Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model has shown signs of concern:

• Significant decrease in fees: Over the past 30 days, network fees were only $43.3 million, a 90% decrease compared to before the Cancun upgrade.
• Staking yields are sluggish: While Blob technology reduces Layer 2 costs, the annualized yield for stakers remains below 3.12%;
• Regulatory Pressure: Scrutiny on ETH staking has led to a net outflow of $369 million from spot ETFs for 8 consecutive days, undermining institutional confidence.

This contradiction is manifested in on-chain data: the proportion of long-term holders (over 1 year) has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has surged by 47%. When technological upgrades fail to translate into profits for holders, ecological prosperity instead becomes a driver of value dilution.

From a technical perspective, the current market situation hides mysteries:

• Volatility compression: The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level since February 2024, indicating that a breakout is imminent;
• Weekly Contradiction: The price remains above the 50-week and 100-week EMA, but the MACD shows a bearish divergence, and the RSI at 42 suggests insufficient upward momentum;
• Key Price Level: A daily closing price of $2,800 will become the bull vs bear battle line; a breakout could reach $3,200-$3,500, whereas a reversal may drop to $2,500.

At the macro level, geopolitical situations and expectations of Federal Reserve policies constitute a dual impact. Interest rate futures show that the market's expectation for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 has reached 79%. If the actual path deviates, the crypto market may be the first to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, some analysts warn that if the real-world asset (RWA) narrative fails to materialize in the third quarter, Ethereum may face a significant risk of market cap loss.

Ethereum is facing multiple challenges and opportunities:

• Staking mechanism optimization: Consider increasing the staking limit for validator nodes and improving the exit mechanism to alleviate liquidity pressure;
• Layer2 Value Distribution: Discussing the allocation of part of the Layer2 transaction fee income to the mainnet to solve the problem of "ecological prosperity, low mainnet revenue";
• Regulatory Breakthrough: If the staking ETF is approved in the third quarter, it could bring a short-term increase of 15-20% and lock in about 8% of the circulating supply.

Some analyses suggest that after breaking through the congestion zone of $2,800, Ethereum may initiate a strong rise to $5,232. However, caution is needed, as the essence of this capital game remains a liquidity battle driven by leverage—when the $1.8 billion short position becomes potential fuel, the market will ultimately verify who is steering the trend and who may face risks.