Q3 Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: Institutional Funds Drive Selective Bull Run, Structural Revaluation Has Already Begun

1. Macroeconomic Environment Warms: Policy and Regulation Resonance Drives Market Reevaluation

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro environment of the crypto market has quietly changed. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending the interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the acceleration of the global crypto regulatory "inclusive framework" construction, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the actual interest rates in the United States are expected to gradually decline from their high levels. The market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025, and this expectation gap has opened an upward channel for the valuation of digital assets. Fiscal policy is also making efforts, and the fiscal expansion represented by the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is bringing about a huge capital release effect, indirectly strengthening the marginal demand for digital assets.

The regulatory attitude has undergone a qualitative change. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has clearly shifted, and the approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the entry of yield-bearing digital assets into the traditional financial system. The promotion of the Solana ETF further indicates that high Beta assets are likely to be institutionalized. The SEC is working to simplify the approval standards for token ETFs, intending to construct a replicable and scalable compliant financial product channel. This is an essential shift in regulatory logic from a "firewall" to a "pipeline engineering".

The compliance race in the Asian region is heating up, with financial hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE competing for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. Companies such as Circle, Tether, JD.com, and Ant Group are making moves, indicating that stablecoins are becoming a part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market is showing signs of recovery. The S&P 500 has reached a new high, technology stocks and emerging assets have rebounded in sync, and the IPO market is warming up, signaling that risk capital is flowing back. Changes in capital behavior are more honest than narratives and more forward-looking than policies.

Under the dual drive of policy and market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a process of value reassessment under a system-driven approach. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a more moderate yet powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Lead the New Bull Run

The current crypto market's most notable focus is the deep logic of chips shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, users centered around speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and companies aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulating chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "lock-up" process. The total amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies has exceeded the net buying scale of ETFs. Companies view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative" rather than a short-term allocation tool. Compared to ETFs, companies have greater flexibility and voting rights by directly purchasing spot Bitcoin, and they possess stronger holding resilience.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital to flow in faster. The approval of ETH staking ETFs means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana spot ETFs further expands the realm of possibilities. Grayscale's application to convert its large crypto fund into an ETF form signifies that the "barriers" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms are being broken down.

Enterprises directly participating in the on-chain financial market have broken the isolation structure between "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. Bitmine has increased its holdings of ETH, and DeFi Development has made significant acquisitions of Solana ecosystem projects, representing that enterprises are participating in the construction of a new generation of crypto finance ecosystem. This capital injection characterized by "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout" will stabilize market sentiment and enhance the valuation anchoring ability of underlying protocols.

Traditional finance is actively laying out in the fields of derivatives and on-chain liquidity. The trading volume of Solana futures and XRP futures on the CME has reached new highs, indicating that traditional institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategic models. Hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds are continuously entering the market, which will enhance the "liquidity density" and "depth" of the market.

The decline in activity among retail investors and short-term players has reinforced the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, early whale wallet activity has diminished, and on-chain search and wallet interaction data have stabilized, indicating that the market is in a "liquidity accumulation period."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is rapidly taking shape. From traditional large banks to emerging retail financial platforms, they are expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only achieves the "usability of crypto assets within the fiat currency system", but also provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, representing a complete restructuring of value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted to institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. The "Shanzhai Season" of the New Era: Selective Bull Run Replaces General Surge

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the broad market rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From the perspective of structural signals, mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair is rebounding, whale addresses are heavily accumulating ETH, and large on-chain transactions are frequent, indicating that the main capital is starting to reprice primary assets. Retail sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next market cycle.

This time, the altcoin market will be "each flying on its own" rather than "flying together." ETF applications have become the anchor point for a new round of thematic structure, especially Solana's spot ETF, which is seen as the next "market consensus event." Investors have begun to position themselves around staked assets, with governance tokens like JTO and MNDE starting to emerge with independent trends. Future asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real yield distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation."

In the DeFi sector, users are shifting from "points airdrop type" to "cash flow type". Protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms have become core indicators. Liquidity providers pay more attention to strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structures. This has led to the emergence of projects like Renzo, Size Credit, and Yield Nest, which attract continuous capital inflow through structured yield products.

Capital is becoming more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions, with protocols like Euler Prime attempting to create on-chain "sovereign bond-like products". Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have also become key factors, with middleware projects like Enso, Wormhole, and T1 Protocol emerging as new hubs for capital concentration.

The speculative part is also shifting. Although meme coins still have popularity, the "everyone pulling up" trend is long gone. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" has emerged, but it carries extremely high risks and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of the altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, to simplified cross-chain UX, and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is entering a profound value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of the bull market.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Core Allocation and Event-Driven Approach

The market layout for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core configuration stability" and "event-driven local bursts." From long-term Bitcoin positioning to Solana ETF theme trading, and then to DeFi real yield protocols and RWA treasury rotation strategies, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows continue, corporate treasuries are increasing their holdings, and the Federal Reserve is signaling a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect. Standard Chartered has raised its year-end price target to $200,000, highlighting that corporate buying is becoming the biggest variable in the market.

Solana is the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Several leading institutions have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is likely to be included in the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of funds for pre-emptive layout. This narrative will drive the governance tokens of SOL spot and its staking ecosystem, such as JTO, MNDE, etc.

DeFi portfolios are worth reconstructing, focusing on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects like SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., adopt an equal-weight allocation method to capture the relative returns of individual projects. One should approach this with a medium-term allocation mindset to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

Meme assets should have a strict control on exposure ratio, and it is recommended to limit it to within 5% of the total asset net value, managing positions with an options mindset. Set clear stop-loss mechanisms, take-profit rules, and position limits. The contract targets launched by mainstream exchanges like Binance should establish a "quick in and out" strategy framework.

The key in the third quarter lies in the timing of event-driven layout. The current market is in a transition period from an "information vacuum" to "intensive event release". Trump's support for crypto mining and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the passing of the "Great American Law", Robinhood's entry into Arbitrum Orbit, and Circle's application for a U.S. license are signals indicating rapid changes in the regulatory environment. It is expected that a "policy + capital resonance" market will arrive from mid-August to early September.

Pay attention to the growing momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 to promote tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration. $H(Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA(AI+DePIN integration) and other projects may become the "explosive points" in the edge sectors.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flooding" betting mentality and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchored by the core, winged by events." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the banner, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerator, with each part corresponding to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment where ETF capital bases are continuously expanding, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns."

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is underway.

The key turning point of the current market is a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns. Bitcoin is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises, serving as a national-level inflation hedging tool. In the future, the factors that will have the greatest impact on its price will be institutional buying decisions, allocation decisions by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of risk asset valuation systems based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and restaked bonds, which represent crypto assets, are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets," leading the direction of the next wave of capital tides.

The new altcoin season will be more deeply tied to three anchors: real yield, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable yield expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects with RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is an elitization of "altcoins," a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

For ordinary investors, it is currently a time when large funds are quietly completing.