Macro risk mitigation, crypto market rebound rise

Recently, the geopolitical situation has eased, and expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, boosting sentiment in the crypto market. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have seen a strong rebound in prices, while altcoins have stabilized after a decline, indicating that the market is overall in a poised state for action.

Improvement of the macro environment

Geopolitical conflicts have eased, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly increased, and the Nasdaq index has reached a new high. These factors have collectively driven a rebound in market risk appetite.

Capital inflow accelerates

The cryptocurrency ETF saw a net inflow of $1.7 billion this week, with an accelerated issuance of stablecoins. Market liquidity has significantly improved, and this trend is expected to continue.

Major coins perform strongly

Bitcoin is oscillating at a high level, with Ethereum following the pump but showing slightly weaker momentum. Crypto market-related concept stocks are generally performing strongly.

The altcoin market shows signs of a turnaround

Although the overall market capitalization of altcoins remains at a low level of fluctuation, liquidity is improving marginally. On-chain activity data shows that the market has not yet fully emerged from weakness.

The market is currently in the final stage of consolidation, and we need to observe the funding breakthrough coordination in the short term. Investors should patiently wait for structural opportunities in altcoins while also paying attention to signs of funding returning to mainstream coins.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment Analysis

US Economic Outlook

It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the growth rate of the US economy will shift from moderate growth to a slowdown. Weak retail sales and employment data indicate a weakening of consumption and investment momentum.

Inflation rose slightly due to the influence of tariffs and oil prices, but it remains within the controllable range of the Federal Reserve. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has decreased, and the government tends to adopt a method of targeted levying and exemptions coexisting.

Monetary Policy Expectations

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with a total of 3 cuts throughout the year to 3.75%. The neutral rate may drop to 3.25%. Whether to cut rates in July has become the focus of market attention.

Important Economic Data

Recently, the employment data in the United States has been generally robust, but potential risks are rising. Non-farm employment growth is slowing, and the number of unemployment claims is increasing. Consumer data is mixed, with service consumption maintaining momentum, but goods consumption is weak.

Key Focus Items for Next Week

Attention should be paid to the release of important economic data such as the U.S. second quarter GDP and PCE price index, as well as the Federal Reserve's policy direction. These factors will have a significant impact on short-term market trends.

Crypto Market Analysis

Capital Flow

This week, the issuance of stablecoins reached 1.839 billion USD, a month-on-month increase of 119%. The average daily issuance was 263 million USD, indicating a significant acceleration in the speed of capital inflow.

Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $1.721 billion this week, an increase of $380 million compared to the previous week. Institutional investors' long-term optimistic attitude towards Bitcoin remains unchanged.

Market Sentiment

The premium rate of stablecoins in the over-the-counter market is showing a horizontal fluctuation trend, but there has not yet been a sustained premium typical of a bull market. Overall market sentiment remains conservative.

On-chain data

The balance of Bitcoin exchanges continues to decline, which is favorable for maintaining a bullish pattern. However, the holdings of long-term holders have seen a slight decrease recently, while the holdings of short-term holders have begun to rise, indicating a need to be cautious of short-term pullback risks.

Chip Distribution

The proportion of addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 USD has slightly decreased, while the proportion of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 USD continues to rise. The main support ranges are between 93,000 and 98,000 USD and 100,500 and 105,000 USD.

Overall, the current market is in the final stage of consolidation, and it is important to closely monitor changes in capital flow in the short term. Investors should remain patient and wait for structural opportunities in altcoins to arise, while also paying attention to signs of capital returning to mainstream coins.