Dogecoin is hovering around the 0.15 USD mark: Whales are fleeing, holders are still holding tight.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is “bleeding” under the weight of the very giants holding it. In just a week, 570 million DOGE have quietly left the hands of the whales – a wave of silent surrender. According to on-chain data, the Output Profit Ratio indicator has switched to red using (SOPR).

In other words, each DOGE that is moved during this period is a realized loss – reflecting the story of the fading FOMO.

However, despite the downward pressure, DOGE only decreased by 2.4% over the past week and the price is accumulating around the 0.15 USD mark. This ability to hold indicates that buying power still exists – possibly coming from retail investors or the mid-level group – absorbing the sell-off liquidity and helping to mitigate the price shock.

But is this resistance a signal of a bottom formation, or just a pause before a further decline?

Whales and short-term investors let go

Dogecoin has wiped out all the post-election gains, currently trading down 70% from the November 2024 peak at 0.49 USD. As a result, most short-term holders (STH) are facing unrealized losses, or have sold near break-even.

The chart below shows this distribution. On January 17th, 17.47% of the circulating supply of DOGE was held by the group holding for 1 to 3 months – the third largest group in the market.

In fact, the time when this group held the most coincided with DOGE’s yearly peak at 0.41 USD – reflecting a price increase driven by FOMO.

Currently, this group only holds 6.5% of the total supply of DOGE – a sharp decline compared to the peak period.

Source: GlassnodeThis contraction is further reinforced by the negative SOPR index – confirming that many short-term investors are taking losses, indicating a decline in confidence in the short-term price recovery.

When whales and short-term investors all “let go”, the support zone of 0.15 USD for DOGE becomes more vulnerable under continued selling pressure.

Therefore, it cannot be confirmed that DOGE has reached the bottom.

The LTH group remains confident despite the DOGE adjustment

The market structure of Dogecoin still shows fragility. However, a segment of investors with strong faith remains steadfast and unwavering.

Notably, the Hodler Net Position Change indicator (Hodler Net Position Change) turned positive when DOGE reached a local peak of 0.41 USD earlier this year – indicating net accumulation from long-term investors during the market’s euphoric phase.

In addition, the group holding for 1–2 years has become the main accumulation force – with the holding rate increasing from 28% to 32%, thereby consolidating its position as the largest DOGE holding group currently.

! Source: GlassnodeIn addition, cash flows in the spot market showed a trend of absorption from retail investors, as DOGE recorded a net outflow of VND 16.48 million in the recent decline to $0.14. This shows that retail wallets are absorbing selling pressure.

Overall, the group of retail and long-term investors is “shouldering” the amount of DOGE distributed by short-term investors and whales – who are witnessing a significant decrease in the number of wallet addresses.

Dogecoin is currently stuck in a tug-of-war of the market. Nevertheless, the accumulation from the LTH group is a positive signal for future recovery.

However, for DOGE to break out of the current accumulation zone, there needs to be a complete absorption of selling pressure. Until then, the support level of 0.15 USD remains structurally weak. Therefore, the recent price stability may only be temporary – not yet a clear sign of a reversal.

You can view the DOGE price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Itadori