Will Ethereum miss this bull market?
Ryan Sean Adams initiated a discussion on X platform about whether Ethereum will miss this bull market. He stated that he would first consider this matter from the perspective of a long-term Ethereum believer, rather than from the perspective of those who mistakenly believe that Ethereum is already dead.
He presented reasons for both the perspective of missing and not missing, and finally asked everyone which side they would stand on?
Ethereum will miss this bull market: New users do not choose Ethereum.
Ethereum is currently in its adolescence, going through an awkward phase of emotional fluctuations like a teenager, trying to grow up but the world doesn't understand it.
The biggest factor is L2. This cycle of Ethereum is different from the past because it is basically telling new users, "Hey, don't use Ethereum, we are too expensive, but the good news is we have 100 brand new L2s that you will like." So countless L2s build cross-chain bridges, then disperse liquidity, and eventually end up in failure and repeat the process.
But in the long run, it is correct to develop Ethereum L2, which is the best long-term way to achieve decentralization, and it is also Vitalik's vision and so on. These things don't need to be repeated to someone who has believed in this since 2021. But the problem is, they are not new buyers of ETH.
So who are these new buyers? They are the people who speculate on meme coins, app users, and those from the traditional financial sector.
But the first two are busy buying tokens on the chain they are using, while L2 beat shows that there are 96 chains available for selection. Finally, the people from traditional finance are buying Bitcoin, and they don't care how much real cash flow there is on the chain.
Although the problem of dispersed liquidity is being solved, fundamentals are also important. But now is the adolescence of Ethereum. When some chains take shortcuts, Ethereum needs to grit its teeth, take a difficult path, and go through the necessary awkward stage in order to become a mature and well-functioning chain.
This is a long-term thing, but there will be no return in this cycle.
ETH bull run is coming: fundamentals are good, Ethereum has a dominant position.
Another group of people will refute the first view and believe that ETH will reach $10,000 after the BTC bull market.
Ethereum is much stronger now compared to the stage in 2020. It is not only a profitable blockchain, but also has solid tokenomics. The world's largest exchange is working on Ethereum L2, ZkEVMs has also been implemented, and the unlimited L2 budget is accelerating the development of Ethereum technology. Ethereum ETF is also about to be launched, as well as BlackRock's tokenized government bonds and so on. The fundamentals of Ethereum are positive.
可能某些链有 100 万用户,但是以太坊可以是 1000 条链的底层基础设施,每条链上 100 万用户的手续费都将回归到以太坊。L2 分散的流动性也会被融合,因为 L2 链正在积累庞大的中心化债务,他们以后会还给以太坊,通过 Gas 向以太坊付费。
For investors who value the new narrative of BTC, they realize and start to pay attention to cash flow, it's just a matter of time.
In short, it is foolish to think that Ethereum will miss this bull market, and the possibility is too small to be worth considering. The market will vote on its own, so the bull market for ETH is coming.
The two different views of Ethereum long-termism mentioned above are whether you will miss this cycle or the ETH bull market is coming, which side are you on?
(Data Source: Ryan Sean Adams, Golem)