① According to a Reuters poll, slightly more than half of the analysts surveyed believe that the ECB will pause its interest rate hike in September, which has lasted for more than a year, but due to high inflation, further interest rate hikes are still possible before the end of the year.
②Since July 2022, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates nine times in a row. But after raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July, central bank President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference that it was uncertain whether further interest rate hikes were needed, and seemed to be paving the way for a pause in tightening.
③ In the face of a slowdown in economic activity, especially in Germany, the leader in the euro zone, Lagarde also said that the data to be released next will be crucial for subsequent decision-making, and a September rate hike or pause is likely.
④In the survey, 37 of the 70 analysts (53%) expected the ECB to hold its hands at the September 14 meeting and maintain the deposit rate at 3.75%, compared with 47% who predicted no change in last month's survey . The survey also showed that 53% of analysts expect the deposit rate to rise to 4.00% this year, with 33 forecasting it in September and 4 forecasting it in October or December.
⑤Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank, said, "We basically predict that the European Central Bank will stay on hold for an extended period of time. However, a setback in the fight against inflation may still force a rate hike later this year,"
⑥ "Since the ECB remains data-driven, September and October face the greatest risk of raising interest rates again if the data fail to convince the (management) committee that inflation is moving closer to the target."
