All Forecast Models are Signaling a Major Bitcoin Reversal After the Latest rejection

Monthly momentum indicators show weakening strength after rejection near 110,000 USD, placing traders’ focus on whether Bitcoin continues toward deeper corrective price zones.

Short-term charts reveal fading volume and lower highs as Bitcoin trades near 86,000 USD, drawing attention to the open CME gap at 85,100 USD.

Kalshi’s updated forecast projects a 78,000 USD yearly low, reflecting expectations of further downside as open interest pressures shape upcoming market movement.

$BTC market conditions show renewed caution as traders assess momentum after the latest monthly shift. Recent activity reflects cooling strength, wider uncertainty, and growing attention to downside levels across multiple timeframes.

Monthly Structure Turns Cautious

Analyst Ali_charts noted that the monthly MACD has turned bearish for the fourth time since 2018. He observed that earlier shifts produced average drawdowns near 60%, placing a possible target around 40,000 USD if the pattern repeats

The monthly chart he referenced displays each sizable retracement since 2018 and the rhythm of extended rallies and resets.The current candle shows a heavy rejection near 110,000 USD, pulling $BTC toward 86,000 USD

That move resembles earlier mid-cycle retracements, where strong rallies stalled before forming deeper corrective waves. The latest histogram rollover on the MACD aligns with waning momentum after the recent all-time high.

$BTC is now trading slightly below 87,000 USD.

Short-Term Cooling Near Key Liquidity Levels

Short-term price action shows hesitation after $BTC touched 88,087.5 and failed to hold that level. Local support has been found between 85,800 and 86,100 USD, yet price movement remains sideways-to-down

Traders are also watching the open CME gap at 85,100 USD. Over the past five months, almost every gap has been filled, with most completing within days. Losing 86,000 USD could press price toward the 84,500 USD liquidity area.

Market Forecasts Shift Toward Lower Yearly Levels

A new data point from Kalshi shows a forecasted yearly low of 78,000 USD for $BTC. The forecast fell 19,000 USD from an earlier reading, suggesting traders expect deeper downside before recovery

The cascading pattern shows repeated failed bounces, each followed by lower levels. Heavy participation near the most recent drop indicates traders are repositioning as the market cools after strong yearly performance

The small upward-ticking red dot near the final candle signals hesitation rather than a clear reversal.Meanwhile, open interest also factors into sentiment

According to the latest update, 6 billion USD in shorts will be wiped out if $BTC adds another 10,000 USD, adding a layer of tension as traders track the next decisive move.

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