Tom Lee makes a big turnaround! Bitcoin's $250,000 dream shattered, changes his tune to "possibly" hitting a new high by the end of the year.

Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine, stated that the “best time” for Bitcoin has yet to come, but he no longer seems as optimistic in predicting that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. In an interview on Wednesday, he said: “I believe Bitcoin is very likely to break $100,000 before the end of the year and may even set a new high.” This seems to be the first time Tom Lee has publicly softened his $250,000 year-end target.

Tom Lee's attitude has shifted from 'certain' to 'possible'

Tom Lee seems to have given up on his previously heavily promoted prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of the year, and is now merely stating that Bitcoin could possibly return to the historical high of $125,100 set in October before the end of the year. “I believe it's very likely that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before the end of the year, and it may even set a new high,” Tom Lee said during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

The change in wording is very apparent. From the beginning of the year saying “Bitcoin will reach $250,000” to now saying “it is very likely to break $100,000,” the target has been lowered by 60%. More importantly, the wording has shifted from the definitive “will” to the vague “may,” indicating that Tom Lee's confidence in his predictions has wavered. This kind of public softening of attitude is not common among Wall Street analysts, as frequently revising predictions can damage credibility.

Tom Lee's prediction is relatively optimistic. Other cryptocurrency executives, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, warned around October that Bitcoin would need to undergo “some unconventional things” to reach that level. This warning existed when Tom Lee initially proposed the 250,000 target, but he still held his ground at that time. Now, with only 35 days left until the end of the year, Bitcoin's price is still struggling around $90,000, and the $250,000 target is clearly no longer achievable.

Nonetheless, Tom Lee stated that the strongest period for Bitcoin may not arrive until the end of 2025. “I still believe that some of the best days will come before the end of this year,” he said, with 35 days left until the end of 2025. This statement attempts to retain the core logic of his optimistic prediction, but has clearly lowered the specific targets.

The Interest Relationship Between BitMine and BMNR Stocks

As the chairman of BitMine, Tom Lee's public predictions may be related to the price of BMNR stock. BitMine is a publicly listed company focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum-related businesses, and its performance and stock price are highly dependent on the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum. When Tom Lee makes optimistic predictions, it may raise market expectations for Bitcoin, indirectly enhancing the attractiveness of BMNR stock.

However, this interest relationship has also raised questions about the objectivity of the predictions. Is Tom Lee conducting an objective analysis for Bitcoin, or is he promoting BMNR stock? When predictions fail to materialize, investors in BMNR stock may question the management's judgment. This may be one of the reasons why Tom Lee chooses to soften his predictions: rather than sticking to obviously unattainable goals that damage credibility, it is better to adjust expectations in a timely manner to protect his reputation.

From the performance of BMNR stock, its price trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $81,000, BMNR stock likely experienced a similar or even greater decline. As a company related to Bitcoin, its stock price often follows Bitcoin fluctuations with a higher leverage multiple. Tom Lee, as the chairman, faces the pressure of stabilizing investor confidence and maintaining the company's valuation.

Investors in BMNR stock should note that the Bitcoin price predictions made by the company's executives do not constitute investment advice and may contain conflicts of interest. Tom Lee's prediction record shows that his accuracy is not stable, with both successful and unsuccessful cases. Investors should make decisions based on their own research and risk tolerance, rather than blindly following analyst predictions.

Tom Lee's prediction record: sometimes good, sometimes bad

If Bitcoin fails to reach Tom Lee's prediction, it won't be the first time Tom Lee's Bitcoin prediction has missed the mark. In January 2018, Tom Lee stated that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022, but it only reached that level last October. Although this prediction was directionally correct, it was delayed by about a year, and for traders relying on precise timing, such delays can lead to opportunity costs or misallocation.

However, Tom Lee has also made some accurate price predictions. In July 2017, Tom Lee predicted that under basic conditions, Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022, while a more optimistic outlook suggested that Bitcoin prices could go as high as $55,000 during the same period. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021. The timing and price of this prediction were extremely accurate, making it the most successful case in Tom Lee's prediction record.

This inconsistent predictive record reveals the difficulties of forecasting in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, technological developments, and market sentiment, making it challenging for any single analytical framework to fully capture its complexity. Although Tom Lee's analytical method has a certain logical basis, the model may fail when faced with sudden events (such as Trump's tariffs, government shutdowns, or major institutional sell-offs).

Tom Lee Prediction Record

July 2017: Predicted $20,000-55,000 in 2022 (accurate, achieved in 2020-2021)

January 2018: Forecasted to reach $125,000 in 2022 (delayed, achieved in October 2024)

Early 2024: Predicted to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 (high probability of failure, currently $91,284)

The Statistical Truth of Bitcoin's '10-Day Showdown'

Tom Lee pointed out that most of the Bitcoin price increases are often concentrated within a few trading days each year, and noted that this asset typically only requires 10 days each year to “complete a price fluctuation.” This perspective is widely circulated among senior executives in the industry. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated in an article published on X in February 2024 that although investors cannot predict when Bitcoin will experience its best market conditions, historically missing the 10 best days of Bitcoin's performance means nearly missing out on all of its gains.

In 2024, the total return rate of the 10 best days for Bitcoin was 52%, while the average return rate for the remaining 355 days was -15%. This data is extremely astonishing, as it indicates that if investors unfortunately held cash instead of Bitcoin during those 10 days, their annual returns would be negative. This extreme concentration of returns is an important characteristic that distinguishes Bitcoin from traditional assets.

This statistical truth provides strong support for the “HODL” strategy. Since it is impossible to predict which 10 days will surge, the safest strategy is to hold throughout the year to ensure that one does not miss critical moments. However, this also means that investors must endure an average -15% negative return and psychological torment for the remaining 355 days. This investment experience is extremely challenging for most people.

Tom Lee uses this statistical data to defend his prediction that “the best days will come before the end of the year.” His logic is that even though the current prices are weak, as long as there are 2-3 explosive days in the remaining 35 days, Bitcoin could still reach a new high. While this possibility exists, the probability is decreasing.

Breaking Historical Patterns and Market Realities in November

Despite the data from CoinGlass showing that November has historically been the strongest month for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average increase of over 40%, in November 2025, Bitcoin experienced a decline of 20%, making it the worst-performing month of the year, completely breaking the seasonal pattern.

This breaking of the pattern raises doubts about the reliability of technical analysis. In the past, Bitcoin prices did exhibit certain seasonal patterns, but these patterns are not absolute laws. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes (such as institutionalization, the launch of ETFs, and changes in the regulatory environment), historical patterns may become ineffective. Tom Lee's prediction of $250,000 may be overly reliant on historical patterns, ignoring the new characteristics of the current market.

Since October 10, Bitcoin has been in a downward trend, pressured by the announcement from U.S. President Trump to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a $19 billion liquidation in the cryptocurrency market. After breaking below the $90,000 level for six consecutive days, it returned to that level only on Wednesday. This macro shock was something Tom Lee failed to foresee when he set his targets at the beginning of the year.

At the same time, economist Timothy Peterson stated on Monday that the bottom for Bitcoin may have already appeared or will appear this week. This judgment of “the bottom has been reached” resonates with Tom Lee's assertion that “the best days are at the end of the year.” If the bottom is confirmed and a rebound begins, Tom Lee's prediction of “possibly reaching a new high” still has room for realization, although 250,000 dollars is no longer possible.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Tom Lee abandon the $250,000 target?

With only 35 days left until the end of the year, the current price of Bitcoin is $91,284, which is 174% away from the target, making the possibility of realization almost zero. Publicly softening the forecast may be to protect the credibility of individuals and BMNR stocks.

How accurate is Tom Lee's prediction?

Sometimes good, sometimes bad. The prediction of $20,000-$55,000 for 2022 in 2017 was very accurate, but the prediction of $125,000 for 2022 in 2018 was delayed by a year. The prediction of $250,000 for 2025 in 2024 is likely to fail.

Can Bitcoin reach new highs by the end of the year?

A explosive surge is needed in the remaining 35 days to break through the historical high of $125,100. Tom Lee believes it is “possible”, but the probability is declining. Multiple catalysts are needed, including a rate cut from the Federal Reserve and a substantial influx of ETF funds.

How should BMNR stock investors view Tom Lee's predictions?

Investors should remain vigilant. As the chairman of BitMine, Tom Lee's predictions may contain conflicts of interest. Investors should make decisions based on their own research and risk tolerance, rather than blindly following.

Is the Bitcoin “10-Day Determination Theory” Trustworthy?

Statistical data indeed shows that the best 10 days in 2024 contribute 52% of the returns, while the remaining 355 days average -15%. However, this does not mean that it is possible to predict which 10 days will be the best, so the safest strategy is to hold throughout the year.

Will Tom Lee's statement “the best days are at the end of the year” come true?

There is a possibility, but it is uncertain. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December, Trump eases tariffs, and ETF funds flow back, Bitcoin may experience a surge in December. However, if these conditions are not met, it may continue to consolidate or decline.