Kalshi CEO: The prediction market is moving towards a trillion-dollar scale and could catch up with the stock market in a few years.

Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the American prediction market platform Kalshi, stated in a recent interview that the growth rate of prediction markets far exceeds his expectations and is on its way to a trillion-dollar market scale. He specifically pointed out that Kalshi's previous victory in its lawsuit against U.S. regulatory agencies has become a key turning point for the explosive growth of the entire industry.

Approaching a trillion-dollar scale, it can catch up with the stock market in a few years.

Mansour stated that the growth rate of the prediction market is quite impressive. Initially, he believed it would take about 10 years for the prediction market to catch up to the trading activity level of the stock market, but it now seems that this scale can be achieved in just a few years. He further remarked that the prediction market is starting to look like a trillion-dollar market.

The victory in the lawsuit drives the explosion of the industry, making a strong entry into sports betting.

Mansour pointed out that Kalshi won a lawsuit against U.S. regulators last year, gaining the qualification to offer “presidential election event contracts,” making this victory a starting point for the entire industry's explosion.

After this, the trading volume of the prediction market rose rapidly. Kalshi and other platforms also took advantage of the regulatory benefits of compliant exchanges to launch “sports event contracts” in some states where sports betting was originally not allowed or restricted. Mansour stated that more sports event-related collaborations will be announced in the future.

Integrate with large news media while expanding the trading community.

Mansour mentioned that Kalshi will collaborate with major news media and will be able to naturally integrate prediction markets into news content. On the other hand, Kalshi also attracts a large number of users through binary event contracts (Yes,No), such as predicting whether a certain team will win or whether a certain event will occur, driving a whole group of new active traders.

He also emphasized that event contracts are different from traditional gambling, as traders bet against each other rather than against the platform, making the trading fairer. He also pointed out that in the history of financial derivatives innovation, they have often been compared to “gambling,” and the line between the two has always been somewhat blurred.

Regulatory resistance still exists, but it cannot stop the intense competition in the industry.

Although Kalshi has been regulated and approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), some state gaming regulators still require Kalshi to cease operations, and there have even been court rulings against it, which pose challenges for the company's future development.

However, the competition in the prediction market is also heating up quickly, for example:

ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to allocate $2 billion to invest in competitor Polymarket.

CME Group has also partnered with Flutter Entertainment to prepare the launch of an event contract app that covers both sports events and economic indicators.

Mansour stated that he welcomes competition, believing it helps drive the overall industry forward. Currently, Kalshi not only has its own app but also pushes event contracts to more retail traders through Robinhood, and has set a new high in trading volume driven by the popularity of sports events.

Mansour emphasized that in the next 18 months, Kalshi will actively expand into international markets and move into more countries.

(Kalshi's valuation skyrocketed to 10 billion USD, making the prediction market a hot spot for VC investment)

This article Kalshi CEO: The prediction market is moving towards a trillion-dollar scale and could catch up with the stock market in a few years. First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.