A $2000 Christmas "heist": Trump and his tariff dividends

Writing: On-Chain Revelation

Every Christmas, children receive gifts from a mysterious Santa, never questioning the cost of the presents. Today, Donald Trump is trying to play Santa for the adult world, promising to distribute a $2,000 “tariff dividend” falling from the sky, claiming the gift is paid for by a distant “foreign factory.”

The crypto market has been excited like a group of kids eager to open presents. But there’s an overlooked detail in this grand magic show: before applauding that suddenly appearing rabbit, no one asks who paid for its dinner. And tonight, who will go hungry?

1. When the President Declares a Nationwide Money Drop: A Market Celebration

Source: Donald Trump

And the crypto market is precisely that guest who never cares who pays for dinner, only smelling the aroma.

The last time they celebrated was during pandemic stimulus checks; this time, the main course of the feast is Donald Trump’s new trick—the “tariff dividend.” This 79-year-old “Santa” who hurriedly “took office” over a month ago announced on November 9 on his social platform Truth Social that he would distribute $2,000 cash to each low- and middle-income American. The “magic” behind this money isn’t a traditional printing press but his beloved import tariffs.

Market applause was thunderous and immediate. Within minutes of the announcement, Bitcoin surged 1.75%, Ethereum rose 3.32%. Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero, more sensitive to “anonymous money printing” narratives, saw double-digit gains. Crypto exchanges’ trading volumes skyrocketed, and social media buzzed with cheers of a “new stimulus bull market.”

Clearly, for these excited “kids,” Santa has already set off in his sleigh.

Unwrapping the early gift: The source of the dividend

Trump’s obsession with tariffs dates back to his 2016 campaign promise—“America First.”

He believed high tariffs could protect U.S. manufacturing and make foreigners pay for America’s debt. After taking office, he quickly launched trade wars with China, the EU, and other economies, imposing high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and consumer goods.

This simple yet dangerous logic: tariffs are described as “protection fees” paid by foreigners, not hidden taxes borne by American consumers.

By fiscal year 2025, U.S. tariff revenue reached $195 billion. Trump repeatedly claimed these funds could be used to pay down America’s $37 trillion national debt. But economists point out that companies simply pass costs onto consumers, resulting in inflation and reduced purchasing power.

But in Trump’s supporters’ eyes, this is a victory—tariffs make “foreigners pay, America gets richer.” This narrative laid the political groundwork for the “tariff dividend.”

How was the dividend born?

The concept of “tariff dividend” didn’t appear out of nowhere. In a TV interview last month, Trump hinted at plans to return part of tariff revenue to Americans—ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 per person. He claimed this policy could generate over $1 trillion annually, enough to cover universal dividends.

On November 9, he officially announced on Truth Social: “We are collecting trillions of dollars and will soon start paying off our huge debt. Everyone (excluding high earners!) will receive at least $2,000 in dividends.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later hinted that the dividend might be distributed as tax cuts. But Trump provided no specific details.

In other words, this glittering gift box, once opened, is empty. No timetable, no eligibility criteria, and no congressional approval.

According to Kobeissi Letter’s investment analysts, based on past stimulus check distribution models during the pandemic, approximately 220 million American adults qualify for such checks. On paper, it sounds like a “fiscal innovation”; in reality, it’s a replay of a political script—shouting slogans to stimulate market reactions.

Markets have muscle memory. They clearly remember that in 2020, U.S. stimulus checks caused Bitcoin to soar from $4,000 to $69,000, fueling the most feverish bull run in crypto history. Naturally, the market expects a “repeat of history,” kicking off another wild crypto party. Now, familiar music plays again, and the market naturally anticipates “history repeating.”

But this time, the magician’s trick has a flaw: the party back then was fueled by the Federal Reserve printing money out of thin air; today’s “dividend” is merely redistributing some of the guests’ drinks to others. It’s not a new feast, just a rebranding of taxes. Its scale and sustainability are full of questions.

• After the last stimulus measures, U.S. inflation approached 10%.

2. The Prepaid Celebration and Unpaid Bills: Emotions, Revelry, Illusions

Market Short-term Euphoria: Emotions Lead, Cash Follows

Crypto markets react swiftly to stories.

Within 24 hours of the announcement, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all rallied.

“Stocks and Bitcoin will only respond to stimulus—by rising,” investor Anthony Pompliano wrote on his X platform after the news.

Bitcoin advocate Simon Dixon warned: “If you don’t invest this $2,000 into assets, it will either be eaten up by inflation, used to pay down debt, or flow back into banks.”

This reveals the core psychology of the market: regardless of whether the stimulus actually materializes, liquidity expectations are the fuel for price increases.

But this rally is more like a psychological illusion of speculation.

1. First, the policy has not yet received any legislative approval. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the dividend plan could die in its cradle.

2. Second, even if implemented, it would mean fiscal revenue is directly distributed rather than used to reduce debt. Trump’s promise to “pay America’s debt with foreign money” is likely to fall short again.

3. More critically, large-scale cash disbursements will increase inflationary pressures, forcing the Fed to adopt more hawkish monetary policies. When liquidity tightens, risk assets will be hit hardest.

Industry analysts warn that while some dividend funds will boost asset prices in the short term, the long-term consequences will be inflation and declining purchasing power.

Market betting: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Behind the frenzy, a legal showdown is underway. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of tariffs. As of November 10, according to decentralized prediction market Polymarket, traders assign only a 23% probability of court approval; on Kalshi, the figure is even lower at 22%. In other words, most market bets favor the plan being ultimately rejected by the judiciary.

Source: Polymarket

But Trump himself is a masterful “director.” He directly questioned on Truth Social:

“Can the President of the United States, authorized by Congress to stop all foreign trade—which is more severe than tariffs—yet not have the power to impose tariffs for national security? What kind of logic is that?”

With just one sentence, he cleverly reframe a dull legal dispute into a grand political drama about “sovereignty.”

This theatrical strategy is second nature to a figure who once cameoed in the Christmas classic “Home Alone 2,” guiding the young protagonist to find the lobby.

3. Behind the Christmas Candy: A Tooth Decay Called “Inflation”

In other words, behind the short-term celebration lies a familiar script. The director hasn’t changed—only the problems are left for the next actor.

“Tariff dividend” has been carefully packaged as a Christmas gift, but it’s more like a melting Christmas candy—sweet at first (short-term stimulus), but leaving behind an insidious cavity called “inflation.”

The $195 billion in tariff revenue, compared to $37 trillion in debt, is like trying to fill an ocean with a single coin. Distributing this coin now is akin to using future money to buy current applause.

The political popularity gained in the short term comes with long-term fiscal risks. Economists warn this policy could lead to “double inflation”: tariffs raising costs, dividends stimulating demand—like pressing both the accelerator and brake of an already speeding car, ultimately overheating the engine and wrecking the vehicle.

Geopolitically, the chaos could also invite complaints or retaliation from neighbors (other countries). When trade wars snowball again, global supply chains will creak, especially for crypto mining reliant on chips—equivalent to a snowstorm.

In short, behind the short-term celebration is a familiar script. Santa is just slipping a bill labeled “Inflation,” “Deficit,” and “Trade War” into next year’s Christmas stocking.

4. The Last to Leave the Table

In this grand political drama, Santa Trump has prepared a special gift not only for ordinary people but also for the crypto world. When he announced pulling $2,000 from the “tariff” red pocket for each American, the entire crypto market seemed to hear the bells of Christmas Eve.

Now, the sled of history appears to be heading down the same old track. Market kids (retail investors) are eagerly watching the chimney, convinced some gifts will drop directly into their crypto wallets, kicking off another “altseason.”

But every child believing in Santa must face a harsh reality: what is the cost of the gift?

This time, Santa’s gift isn’t conjured out of the North Pole workshop. He’s simply maxed out the country’s credit card. This $400+ billion feast’s bill is “inflation.” When holiday heat makes the entire room (economy) overheated, the adults (Federal Reserve) might have to open the windows and blow in cold air (raise interest rates), ending the party early.

So, every crypto investor faces a wrapped gift: in the short term, it shines with the allure of history repeating; but in the long run, the back of the box may be printed with a “bill” labeled “Inflation.”

Is this a gift that will keep the winter warm, or just a melting Christmas candy that causes cavities? For crypto believers, choosing which story to believe will determine whether they can survive this feast unscathed.

The last one to leave the party pays the bill.