Polymarket Token Airdrop confirmed! Monthly volume rebounded to 3 billion yet lost to Kalshi.

Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber confirmed that they plan to launch the native Token POLY and conduct an Airdrop. The platform is preparing to relaunch in the United States by the end of November. However, the monthly trading volume of its U.S. regulatory competitor Kalshi has reached $4.4 billion, surpassing Polymarket, and it has secured a new round of funding with a valuation of $12 billion.

Polymarket active users surged by 93.7%, reaching an all-time high

(Source: The Block)

Data from The Block shows that the number of monthly active traders on Polymarket surged to a historic high of 477,850 in October, surpassing the previous record of 462,600 set in January. This marks a strong rebound in the platform's monthly trading user count from a year-long downward trend, with the number of monthly trading users dropping to as low as 227,420 in August. The October data represents an increase of 93.7% compared to September, when the platform reported a monthly trading user count of 246,610.

This explosive growth is not a coincidence, but the result of multiple factors working together. First, the anticipation of token airdrops attracted a large number of traders to flock to the platform in order to meet the eligibility requirements. Second, Polymarket's plan to relaunch in the United States released positive signals, as the U.S. is the largest cryptocurrency market in the world, and its access is crucial for the platform's development. Third, the intense period of global politics and sports events provided a wealth of trading targets for the prediction market.

Polymarket's monthly trading volume rebounded to a new high of $3.02 billion last month after experiencing a slump of around $1 billion or less between February and August. The platform added 38,270 new markets in October, nearly three times that of August. The surge in the number of new markets indicates that the platform is rapidly expanding the range of events it covers, from political elections and sports events to economic data and entertainment events, with a diverse selection of markets attracting traders with different interests.

Polymarket October Key Data

Active Users: 477,850 people (historical high, an increase of 93.7% compared to September)

Monthly Trading Volume: 3.02 billion USD (historical high)

New Market: 38,270 (an increase of nearly 3 times compared to August)

Valley Comparison: In August, the number of users was only 227,420, achieving a doubling growth.

POLY Token Airdrop Confirmation Triggers Wool Effect

Although Polymarket currently does not have its own cryptocurrency, its Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber recently confirmed plans to launch the native Token POLY and conduct an Airdrop. This news may have contributed to a surge in platform activity, as Airdrop announcements typically attract a large number of traders to the platform to meet participation eligibility requirements.

Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, stated: “In October, the activity in cryptocurrency trading surged, and traders began sharing new strategies, taking advantage of Polymarket's decentralized access and event-driven options trading features to profit through liquidity provision, arbitrage, and information asymmetry.” This statement reveals the various profit models of the Polymarket platform, which are not limited to simple directional betting but also include market making, arbitrage, and information trading among other more complex strategies.

Airdrop economics have formed a mature model in the crypto market. Since 2024, multiple projects have successfully guided user participation and community building through airdrops, with airdrops from projects like Uniswap, dYdX, and Arbitrum creating hundreds of millions of dollars in value distribution. The strong reaction to Polymarket's airdrop is partly due to the platform having accumulated a large amount of real trading data, making user participation in Polymarket more authentic compared to other “mining and dumping” projects.

However, the expectations of the airdrop also bring potential risks. Once the airdrop is completed, the platform may face user attrition and a decline in trading volume, known as the “post-airdrop syndrome.” Many projects have experienced a significant drop in user activity after the airdrop, as speculators leave the platform after claiming the airdrop. Polymarket needs to design long-term incentive mechanisms in the Token economic model to ensure that users have reasons to continue using the platform after receiving the airdrop.

Strategic significance of returning to the US market in November

Polymarket is currently focused on relaunching in the United States, aiming to complete it by the end of November. This relaunch is significant for the platform. Previously, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million due to a law enforcement dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 and subsequently withdrew from the U.S. market.

Subsequently, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) relaxed its previous restrictive stance on prediction markets, indicating a more open view of prediction markets as an innovative frontier in the new era of information and finance. This shift in regulatory attitude created a favorable environment for Polymarket to return to the U.S. market. The U.S. market not only has a large user base and capital scale, but is also the center of global cryptocurrency innovation. Re-entering the U.S. means that Polymarket can reach institutional investors, compliant funds, and mainstream media attention.

The timing of returning to the United States is also quite strategic. November is a critical phase in the U.S. presidential election cycle, and the demand for political prediction markets reaches its peak. If Polymarket can relaunch at this time, it will directly benefit from the trading frenzy related to the elections. Additionally, sports events (such as the NBA and NFL) are entering their peak season, which are important sources of traffic for prediction markets.

Kalshi Dominates the Regulated Prediction Market with 4.4 Billion USD

(Source: The Block)

At the same time, the monthly trading volume of the U.S. regulated prediction market platform Kalshi reached $4.4 billion, surpassing Polymarket and solidifying its leading position established in September. This data highlights the competitive advantage of a compliant framework in the U.S. market. As a fully CFTC-regulated prediction market, Kalshi can legally serve U.S. users, giving it a structural advantage in liquidity and institutional participation.

Bloomberg reported last month that Kalshi has received investment proposals from venture capital firms, which could value the company at up to $12 billion. Previously, in October, the company raised $300 million at a valuation of $5 billion. The jump in valuation from $5 billion to $12 billion shows the capital market's extreme optimism towards the compliant prediction market sector.

The competition between Kalshi and Polymarket is essentially a showdown between regulatory pathways and decentralized ideals. Kalshi has chosen to fully embrace regulation by obtaining CFTC approval to serve the U.S. market, at the cost of higher compliance costs and operational restrictions. Polymarket, on the other hand, has opted for a decentralized path, utilizing blockchain technology to provide permissionless global access, but this has also led to regulatory hurdles in major markets such as the U.S.

From the trading volume data, Kalshi's $4.4 billion significantly exceeds Polymarket's $3.02 billion, and this gap may narrow as Polymarket returns to the U.S. However, Kalshi's compliance advantages allow it to attract institutional funds and high-net-worth individuals, who typically trade in larger and more stable volumes. In contrast, Polymarket's user base may lean more towards crypto-native users and retail traders.

Future Outlook of Predictive Market Racing

The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi marks a critical stage in the mainstreaming of prediction markets. The core value of prediction markets lies in aggregating decentralized information into tradable price signals, a mechanism that has demonstrated accuracy beyond traditional polls and expert forecasts in areas such as politics, sports, and economic predictions.

With the Polymarket token airdrop and the re-launch in the United States, as well as Kalshi obtaining higher valuations and funding support, the prediction market track may experience explosive growth in 2025. Two different development paths—decentralization and compliance—will coexist and compete in the market, and ultimately who can win will depend on regulatory evolution, user preferences, and product innovation.