Bitcoin Metrics Flash Hot Zone as Momentum Indicators Turn Positive

MVRV ratio jumped from 1.9 to 2.4 in October, a momentum crossover above its yearly average.

Analyst Ted notes 99.3% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, a level that previously led to short term pullbacks.

$100K–$110K is the next major top as profitability metrics and on-chain momentum converge.

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength across multiple on-chain indicators, positioning the asset near a key pressure point. Analyst Ali noted that “momentum turns bullish again,” citing a decisive change in trend direction

His assessment aligns with an upswing in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key gauge for identifying phases of expansion. The ratio helps determine when traders are sitting on unrealized profits relative to their entry cost, offering a quantitative view of confidence. Recent changes within this metric now suggest accumulation is returning after months of hesitation.

MVRV Crossover Shows Positive Momentum

Between November 2024 and October 2025, Bitcoin oscillated between $60,000 and $110,000 while the MVRV ratio fluctuated between 1.6 and 2.8. It briefly dropped near 1.6 in March 2025, indicating aggressive capitulation

Source: Ali on X

However, a swift rebound followed in April and May as Bitcoin recovered from the $70,000 zone to above $90,000. That recovery led to the neutral phase. From June through September 2025, both price and MVRV remained muted near their 1 year averages

This flat period provided little directional clarity. Yet early October delivered a sharp break, with the MVRV climbing from 1.9 to 2.4 and crossing above its moving average. Historically, such crossovers indicate resurgent appetite among holders.

Profit Supply

Notably, analyst Ted noted another statistical pressure point. According to his data, 99.3% of all Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. That ratio only appeared three times before, and each instance was followed by a decline between 3% and 10%. His remark, “will this time be different?”, suggests a narrow window between continuation and exhaustion.

When nearly all holders are in profit, distribution often increases. However, recent MVRV readings still are below the overheated 2.6 to 2.8 region, suggesting runway remains before aggressive selling historically begins.

Resistance Bands

This convergence now places the $100,000 to $110,000 range back into view. That band capped previous attempts across 2024 and 2025. Rising unrealized gains combined with stretched profitability metrics could pressure that ceiling again. However, prior patterns imply that excess acceleration often introduces short term cooldowns.

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