3 signals that indicate the price of ETH is about to surpass the $4,000 mark

Ethereum has recorded an increase of nearly 3% in the past 24 hours, and the weekly loss has been adjusted down to only 3.5%. With the current price approaching the psychological level of 4,000 USD, both the technical indicators and on-chain data show positive signs for a breakout that is not far away.

The Re-accumulation of Short-term Investors

One of the reliable methods to assess upcoming momentum is to monitor the wallet activity of short-term investors. These are addresses that have held Ethereum for a period of 1 to 3 months, typically associated with new accumulation. Data from HODL wave shows that the percentage of these addresses has surged from 9.57% to 11.93% in less than a month, indicating that buying activity has been refreshed.

Source: GlassnodeThese investors often participate during the consolidation phase and play a crucial role in initiating breakout rallies.

HODL Waves show the percentage of Ethereum supply held over different time periods, with the 1–3 month group being particularly important for identifying accumulation activity during transitional phases.

SOPR suggests that the bears are losing momentum

Supporting this buying activity is the behavior of the SOPR index, or the Spent Output Profit Ratio. This index monitors the profit/loss status of the coins being sold. A decreasing SOPR, while the price remains stable or increases, is often a sign that profit-taking has slowed down.

SOPR Ethereum | Source: GlassnodeCurrently, SOPR is trending downwards, even though the price of Ethereum has slightly increased. The last time a similar situation occurred was at the end of July, when ETH quickly gained momentum afterward. This is a typical bottoming pattern. If this trend continues, it will bolster confidence that the $4,000 threshold is well within reach.

SOPR helps measure market confidence; when sellers do not take profits despite rising prices, this indicates increasing confidence in further price increases.

Resistance is gradually decreasing as buyers jump in; is this good for Ethereum's price action?

On-chain data from the Global In/Out of the Money model by IntoTheBlock shows that the current resistance area is weak. Only 11.95 million addresses are right above the current price of Ethereum at 3,720 USD, indicating that few investors are in a position to sell at breakeven, reducing the likelihood of encountering strong resistance between the current level and the threshold of 3,937 USD.

Ethereum price and sell wall | Source: IntoTheBlockThe price level of 3,937 USD is very important according to the weekly price chart. In previous cycles, Ethereum was rejected near the 4,100 USD level in March 2024 and twice in December 2024. However, this time, the ETH price has not tested the 4,000 USD threshold, although it has remained above 3,300 USD since June. This makes retesting the 4,000 USD level very necessary.

Note: A weekly chart is used to filter out movements in the range; which ETH has been stuck in for a long time.

Ethereum Price Analysis | Source: Bitcoin MagazineIf Ethereum convincingly surpasses the 3,937 USD threshold, the lack of selling pressure at this level will increase the likelihood of a rally surpassing 4,000 USD. However, if selling pressure increases with a declining SOPR along with price corrections, or if short-term investors turn into sellers, the 3,335 USD level will be a key level to watch.

A violation below this level, especially on a larger time frame, could turn the structure into a bearish one, invalidating the current hypothesis.

Mr. Giáo