Golden 10 collation: As instituições aguardam com expectativa a decisão da Reserva Federal sobre as taxas de juro (3) - ou 25 pontos base de cortes nas taxas de juro, abrindo a porta a mais cortes nas taxas de juro

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-18 08:19:51

Geração de resumo em curso

EY: Expected 25bp interest rate cut, first dissenting opinion in 19 meetings. Remove negative statement about interest rate cut. Raise unemployment rate forecast for this year and lower PCE inflation forecast. Powell will express support for the labor market. 2. CICC: Basically lock in the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut in September, overall US CPI continues to slow down, but core CPI recovers for the second consecutive month. The soft landing of the US economy accompanies inflation stickiness, and interest rate cuts will be intermittent. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expected 25bp interest rate cut, Powell has to show confidence in the outlook, economic forecasts will show a 75 basis point rate cut this year. But if a 50 basis point rate cut is chosen, it is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. 4. Danske Bank: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the pace of QT will not change. The new dot plot will indicate a total of 3 rate cuts of 25bp this year and 6 rate cuts of 25bp next year. The risk tends to be higher US dollar and short-term bond yields. 5. Nordea: Expected 25bp interest rate cut, 25bp rate cuts in November and December, and 100bp rate cuts next year. This is significantly different from market expectations and may be disappointing. Powell will open the door to more frequent and larger rate cuts. 6. CITIC Securities: US CPI in August basically meets expectations, the cooling trend of rental inflation is not reversed, and the forecast of three 25bp rate cuts by the Fed during the year is maintained. Pay attention to the allocation opportunities in short-term US bonds and defensive US stocks. 7. Deutsche Bank: Expected 25bp interest rate cut, although the market expects a slightly higher than 50% chance of the Fed’s first significant rate cut. But a small first step does not exclude big moves in the future, and the current risk tends to be a weak US dollar.

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