Instituição: O mercado está muito otimista em relação ao corte de taxas do Banco Central Europeu em setembro

Validus Risk Management’s senior analyst, Locke, said on July 2nd that the market is too eager to digest the news of the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut in September. He pointed out that wage growth is still strong, service industry inflation remains high, and overall CPI is still 50 basis points higher than the European Central Bank’s target. This indicates that last month’s interest rate cut by the central bank was driven by economic difficulties rather than an initial sign of overcoming inflation. Locke said that at the European Central Bank annual meeting held in Sintra, Portugal, President Lagarde is expected to reiterate that a strong labor market means that it takes time to properly assess new data. He added that with increasing political uncertainty and other inflation risks on the supply side, the market is becoming too optimistic about a rate cut in September.