Be careful with what you buy! Analyst: "This coin" is facing a death cross, did not hold the support fear of big dump?

Ripple ($XRP) MVRV Enters Negative Territory

Foreign media 'BeInCrypto' on-chain analyst Aaryamann Shrivastava pointed out that Ripple ($XRP) has been struggling to regain long positions momentum in the past four weeks, with the price lacking significant changes. This price stagnation has made investors worried about the future trend of $XRP.

Shrivastava pointed out that after experiencing a three-day pullback, the long and short-term MVRV delta of $XRP has fallen into negative territory. When MVRV is positive, it indicates that long-term holders (LTH) are in a profitable state, while a negative value implies that short-term holders (STH) are more profitable.

As of today (25th), the MVRV value is -0.08%, indicating that both long-term and short-term holders are at fair value, reflecting a weak market condition. Shrivastava believes that when neither long-term nor short-term holders are able to achieve significant profits, it highlights the lack of momentum needed for $XRP to break through the oscillation range.

What is MVRV: MVRV stands for the ratio of total circulation value/realized Market Cap in Chinese, by comparing the relationship between a token's market value and realized value, reflecting the current supply and demand relationship in the market, one can evaluate whether the current token price is overvalued or undervalued.

Image Source: BeInCrypto Ripple ($XRP) MVRV Trend

Further Reading: What are MVRV and Ahr999 Indices? Introduction to 7 Commonly Used BTC Trend Analysis Indicators

Ripple ($XRP) is facing a death cross in its trend.

From the perspective of Technical Analysis, the overall momentum of $XRP also shows signs of fatigue.

Shrivastava said that when the short-term Moving Average (EMA) falls below the long-term Moving Average, a death cross is formed, which is a bearish signal.

As of today (25th), the two EMA lines of $XRP are on the verge of a death cross.

In a weak market, death crosses usually last a short period of time, and $XRP may currently be in this situation. However, if the cryptocurrency market suddenly declines, death crosses may last for a longer period of time, causing a longer-term negative impact on the price of $XRP.

Image source: BeInCrypto Ripple ($XRP) short-term EMA moving average facing a death cross

Price Trend Prediction of Ripple ($XRP)

Shrivastava analysis indicates that, from a technical perspective, XRP is currently hovering above the fibonacci pullback 38.2% level (0.52 USD), which is a key support level on the short term.

In addition, $XRP faces resistance at the 50% Fibonacci pullback level (0.55 USD), forming a range of oscillation between 0.52 and 0.55 USD.

According to Shrivastava, based on the current technical and market conditions, if $XRP does not have any significant external catalyst event, this range-bound trend may continue for several days.

However, if the death cross leads to further downward pressure, $XRP may lose support at $0.52 and may further decline to $0.47. If it falls below $0.47, a larger pullback may occur.

Other analysts' opinions

Analyst Tomiwabold Olajide from U.today also stated that XRP broke below the 200-day moving average (0.538 USD) on October 22, indicating that shorts are attempting to take control of the market. This Wednesday, $XRP hit a low of 0.5117 USD, prompting buyers to re-enter.

Olajide believes that, in order to maintain the Rebound trend, the longer side needs to push the price up and stabilize it above the 50-day moving average ($0.55) to have a chance to challenge the $0.64 resistance level.

Olajide's support level for follow is lower than Shrivastava's, at $0.50. If it falls below, it may further drop to $0.46.

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.