Just came across something interesting about historical market cycles. There's this 1875 theory by Samuel Benner that's been floating around – basically this guy tried to map out periods when to make money by identifying recurring economic patterns. The whole thing breaks down into three distinct phases that supposedly repeat roughly every 18 to 20 years.

So here's how it works. You've got panic years first – these are the rough patches where financial crises hit hard and markets collapse. The theory suggests years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and going forward 2035, 2053. During these times, you're supposed to sit tight and not panic sell. Kind of makes sense when you think about it – that's when everyone else is dumping assets.

Then there are the boom years. This is when prices are rising and markets are recovering strong. These are your selling opportunities – 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and projected forward to 2026, 2034, 2043, 2054. When you see prices climbing and everything feels bullish, that's supposedly when you lock in profits.

The third pattern is recession years – when prices are depressed and the economy's slowing down. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050, 2059. This is the buying window. Assets are cheap, whether stocks, land, or commodities. You accumulate here and then hold until the boom phase returns.

The basic strategy is pretty straightforward – buy low during recessions, hold through panic years without selling, then dump everything during boom periods when prices are at their peak. It's cyclical thinking applied to markets.

Now, here's the thing – this theory is interesting from a historical perspective, but it's not gospel. Markets get influenced by so many variables these days: geopolitical events, technological disruption, policy shifts, wars, regulatory changes. The Benner cycle gives you a framework for thinking about long-term periods when to make money, but it's more of a conceptual guide than a fixed rule you can set your watch to.

That said, if you're looking at multi-year market patterns and trying to understand when major shifts happen, this cyclical approach is worth keeping in the back of your mind. It's been surprisingly relevant for explaining some major turning points in market history.