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CITIC Futures: Geopolitical Premium Rises, Macroeconomic Game Intensifies
Middle East conflict continues to escalate. The United States and Israel are expanding their military actions against Iran, while Iran launches strikes on Gulf countries and critical energy facilities. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and global energy supply uncertainty has risen significantly. Ongoing demand for safe-haven assets continues to support gold prices. Rising oil prices lift inflation expectations, and the market has begun to reassess the policy paths of major economies. The likelihood of interest rates staying at a high level has created a temporary drag on gold. After a prior decline, the U.S. dollar rebounded; due to exchange-rate and interest-rate factors, gold at elevated levels has shown a choppy, sideways trading pattern. (CITIC Futures)