[Red Envelope] The index is worry-free; focus on individual stocks. One big bullish candle can influence three days.

Unreliable ceasefire and rest for 2 weeks. Korea and Japan were the first to gap up by 5%. After the market call auction ended, incremental volume was 2.3 trillion. Where there is volume, there is momentum. Technology took the lead, with Huiyuan Communication hitting 4 consecutive boards all at once (one-price limit-up), MINGPU Opto-Electronics grabbing positions with one-price limit-up, Hanggang Shares also one-price limit-up, Dongshan Precision having earnings above expectations and exploding in volume to秒板 (hit the limit-up instantly), Yi Zhongtian’s “Three Swordsmen” gapped up, which pushed technology higher. Tongding Internet and Oryde both got up boards. Domestic compute power and overseas compute power launched an offensive. But the high-position leader, Changfei Optical Fiber, turned and dumped, smashing the order book downward. The 2-board stock Huasheng Chang followed with a pullback. The main reason was that Farsing extended the regulatory “nuke button,” making funds risk-averse—right? [Tao股吧]

Farsing’s anomalous move during the pre-holiday period ended. Yesterday it got a reward of a one-price limit-up premium. Last night, the regulatory action was extended, and today it became a one-price “nuke button.” So even Wanfangde, which already got through the anomaly check yesterday, wouldn’t have a good outcome. It gapped down and sold off in the opening auction. It then got a straight-line limit-up spurred by Tianjin Pharmaceutical (津药药业), driving a high-repair. As Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s limit-up board got blasted and plunged, Wanfangde accelerated its drop and nearly tapped the daily limit-down.

For the biotech/pharmaceutical sector, the opening auction was actually not bad. Xintian Pharmaceutical hit 2 boards with a one-price limit-up. Baihua Biopharma, tied to M&A restructuring, also one-price limit-up. MeinuoVah was inexplicably one-price limit-up as well. Maybe it was the “Duo Duo” teacher’s seat on the龙虎榜 (top trading list) getting a premium. The auction had three one-price limit-ups, which gave Tianjin Pharmaceutical the courage to go for the buyback and冲板 (push for another limit-up). At 9:42, Anzhongke advanced to 3 boards. Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s limit-up board then blasted and sank; Xintian Pharmaceutical took a big loss.

From here, analyze it: technology is diverting capital away from pharma/biopharma. At present, chemical pharmaceuticals are still trading above the 5-day line. Tomorrow, in theory, there is an opportunity for a repair. The key is whether Tianjin Pharmaceutical and Wanfangde can reverse and go for a back-cover. If within 2 days chemical pharmaceuticals fail to produce a big bullish reversal (大阳线反包), then basically you don’t need to pay attention anymore—this is a tail-end fish-wagging行情 (a fading tail).

AI was strong intraday, mainly concentrated in hardware and software. Hardware:光模块 (optical modules), PCB, and liquid-cooled server equipment. Software: advertising and marketing, etc. But it’s not really a good setup to participate. Besides the “can’t-kill” optical modules, most of the rest are oversold pattern setups. BlueFocus, and Liou Electronics, are all familiar old faces—so the pull-up is destined not to be smooth.

In the afternoon, the index oscillated strongly. Funds that missed the move in technology tried to rush into a new stock 红板 (bullish limit-up in early trading). Toward the close, Xinzhonggang got up-board to try to bring electricity back into the flow. XinengtaiShan also grabbed positions in the auction.

In recent days,人氣 (hotness) stocks have mostly gone cold. Daan Nan (大东南), Zhongli Group (中利集团), Guosheng Technology (国晟科技), Tongen Shares (通达股份), XinengtaiShan, Changfei Optical Fiber, etc., all didn’t perform strongly. In the short term, it’s like a seesaw between trading styles and trends. “Unreliable” said一句停战2周 (a one-sentence ceasefire for two weeks). The index recouped a large portion of about half a month’s losses. So is the rebound just starting, or is it already ending?

From the market’s trading volume perspective: intraday new volume was 820 billion, and the close was 2.4 trillion—close to the pre-market idea of 2.5 trillion. A high-speed train can’t stop instantly. It will still surge a bit with inertia, and then only gradually slow down. Tomorrow there’s still an expectation of a push higher.

From the perspective of trapped-share holders (套牢盘): the SSE Composite Index, the STAR Market index, and the ChiNext index all expanded volume and managed to stand above the 5-day line. But there are still a huge pile of trapped shares on the left side. In the afternoon, the index oscillated a bit at high levels; going forward it needs continuous increased volume to sustain an offensive posture.

Today many friends have one question: broad gains make you not know what to buy. The rebound vanguard is AI. The sector is a trend style. The biggest characteristic of a trend is: once you buy, it feels awful when you get trapped; if you don’t buy, it also feels awful watching it rise. When trading is torturing you, learn to stop—and then grind your mindset a bit.

点评连板个股 (review of consecutive-board stocks)

4 boards: Huiyuan Communication. As an optical communication tools “utility” identity, when you buy it, you’re very likely buying at a point where it’s already close to a limit-up-to-limit-down outcome. Also, the timing of the node isn’t right—it’s a stock within Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s cycle.

3 boards: Anzhongke. The technology auction gapped up sharply. Anzhongke opened with zero shares (0盘开) clearly didn’t meet expectations. It then dipped again, only to be pushed back into a board by the compute power sector’s strong rally. Then Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s limit-up board blasted and plunged. The compute power “board position” (身位板) needs a weak-to-strong shift to show. But everyone knows compute power’s “jerk/hustler” (渣男) traits: after each big rally, the next day it often traps people. So many are watching from the sidelines.

2 boards:
CGI International. A shrinking-volume acceleration board. Tomorrow it can only be “strong on strong,” with no expectation gap. Also, it’s a little brother of Anzhongke.

Tongding Internet. The trend补涨 of Changfei Optical Fiber. It needs to accept a test of volume expansion and divergence before reversing back to confirm “hype” (人气).

Core Technology. It needs to PK against Tongding Internet.

Guangdong Media (粤传媒): Yesterday it rode on the soccer concept. Today it spread into AI media attributes. Tomorrow there’s an expectation of a one-price limit-up acceleration.

The above analysis only represents my personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. Buying and selling based on it is at your own risk; profits and losses are your own responsibility. Finally, thanks to all brothers for your support for buying-boost “lottery vouchers” (加油券).

See you at the early session tomorrow…