Youlan Travels the World: April 9 Early Gold Rush Insights

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With heavy trading volume, the market rebounded strongly, and several major indices showed the largest single-day gains in a very long time. Yesterday marked a preliminary bottoming out, but the market could still go up or down. Today’s retaliatory rebound was completely due to the ceasefire; the outside market moved first, and A-shares followed suit. If there truly is a ceasefire, market risk appetite in the short term will definitely improve—that is the most basic form of emotional correction, after all, war is playing out the most extreme release of emotion. Normally, the next two weeks are a period of steady transition, also the time for the market to regain its energy. As for what happens afterward, it depends both on the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and on whether A-share’s own ecosystem changes; comparatively speaking, the latter is more important. In fact, this round of correction—its overseas trigger is only an incentive and an accelerant. The most essential reason is that something is wrong internally with A-share; it is that bizarre ecosystem that leaves many funds with nowhere to land. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have had the situation where the overseas market rebounded for four or five days last week while we still fell hard.

What to do when the rebound comes? Lie low first; wait a few days, then reduce positions or adjust your holdings. The nature of the rebound is first an oversold rebound—also a corrective rebound. Can it truly reverse? That’s a question for later to define. For now, treat it as a rebound: first let it rebound with volatility rather than a continuous, sustained main rally. For a reversal and a big bull move to arrive, at least something new must show up—either a new ecosystem or a new main theme.

The Monday article said that the market’s real bottoming out and rebound first appears as stocks delivering retaliatory oversold rebounds. Today, the protagonists of the rebound are also oversold rebounds. There isn’t a continuous main storyline; instead, various types of oversold rebounds rotate in. In the early phase, areas such as hard-hit AI applications, domestic compute capacity, nonferrous metals, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace led first. Meanwhile, recently, the sentiment stocks and the “grouped” stocks that are moving against the trend have actually fallen more in the opposite direction. An oversold rebound begins with a stampede driven mainly by sentiment, just like a spring compressed hard rebounds quickly—but if you want it to bounce repeatedly and go far, you have to look at its quality and logic.

Today, opening high but not selling off—it’s not because the quant ecosystem changed, but because incremental capital absorbed the supply pressure from the quant open. Once it enters a consolidation phase, it will again move into a rhythm dominated by quants. In the quant era, it’s quite difficult to rely on emotion and speculation to ignite things everywhere by following the news flow. What happened today—a broad-based rally—is a low-probability event. Most of the time, you need to focus on logic and trends. The logic and trend at the core are essentially industry-logic-driven trends that can play out for a long time—the long logic creates room for fundamentals to be realized. Since the second half of last year, the market has started behaving strangely. The good thing is that logic driven by fundamentals has been strengthening. This kind of fundamental logic is driven by industry logic producing high growth, not those “numbers” of the past. For these stocks, you can look long and do short with timing, but the core is that they must be able to stay actively traded and remain lively for a long time. Purely sentiment-driven small themes no longer have much of a market, other than providing a wedding garment for quant strategies.

At present, the only long-logic areas you can really talk about are the AI industry chain. And those that have already formed a chart trend are the optical interconnect-related compute hardware directions such as CPO + OCS + PCB + fiber optics + optical chips. Domestic compute capacity also has potential, but the trend that has emerged isn’t as smooth. The optical interconnect direction already shows a tendency for second- and third-tier stocks to rotate and catch up on gains. Those that have already run up a lot are more suitable to pull back and then participate. Overall, you can switch between high and low. No matter whether you choose high or low, if you’re doing short-term trades on trend stocks, you must pay attention to timing—chasing highs and selling lows is emotion-driven speculation. For domestic compute capacity, you need to focus on stocks that can deliver performance. Many stocks that only “ride on sentiment” may rise a bit when the crowd moves up, but when they fall, they drop fast. Other areas also include industry trend logic such as commercial aerospace and energy like lithium batteries, but I won’t list them all. As for so-called trend logic, stocks with different qualities will naturally have different走势. If it’s all the same, like a stampede, then it’s just sentiment speculation. In the future, the market will be a structural market where you prioritize individual stocks (characteristics) over the overall market.

For the short term, today’s strongest AI application concept should belong to an oversold + rotation role. It may not necessarily continue to lead the market; tomorrow, it might rotate to other areas showing strength. The protagonists of the oversold rebound are previous strong themes rotating in one after another. After the crowd stampede of sentiment passes, you then need to watch the direction of repeated logic + trend, and the specific stocks. Regarding the market, tomorrow overall looks like volatility with small differentiation; don’t fixate on directional issues in the moment for now.

There are too many limit-up boards today, and there’s no classification and summary. That’s all the content the article contains.

Note: This article is only my personal recap of experience. The stocks involved are all for reference summaries and not stock recommendations. I have never recommended stocks. Any buying and selling based on this is at your own risk. When reprinting, please注明 the author and source. Any partial or full reposting where the author is not credited as “幽兰行天下” is an act of plagiarism; responsibility will be pursued for plagiarism. Everyone is welcome to leave comments and report it.