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Why is the cryptocurrency market particularly sensitive to this Middle East conflict news?
Three overlapping reasons:
1. Strait of Hormuz = Energy supply chain hub. About 20% of the world's oil passes through here. If blocked, oil prices surge, inflation expectations spike, the Fed's room to cut interest rates shrinks, and risk assets come under pressure — this is the logic behind valuation declines.
2. Uncertainty itself is volatility. The US-Iran negotiations have fallen into a "Rashomon" scenario — one side says they've negotiated, the other says they haven't — this information vacuum is most likely to trigger chain reactions in algorithmic trading, with the crypto market operating 24/7, bearing the brunt.
3. Ceasefire expectations are a morale booster. Once a ceasefire signal is confirmed, the market's first reaction is "risk appetite increases," funds shift from safe-haven assets back into BTC and other highly elastic assets, causing short-term pulse-like upward movement.