Morgan Stanley: Los proveedores de automóviles de la UE superaron al mercado tras la crisis energética

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley stated that auto suppliers often perform better than the overall sector after energy crises, and that tire makers, despite acting as a relatively safe haven during periods of economic slowdown, can also achieve a strong rebound. The company released this analysis on Tuesday, when the European auto sector (STOXX:SXAP) rose 6% after news of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

The US agreed to implement a two-week ceasefire with Iran, on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. With markets expecting an improvement in macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, reducing risks of inflation and further rate hikes, oil prices fell overnight. Suppliers, tire makers, and original equipment manufacturers all performed strongly.

Suppliers typically fare poorly during energy crises due to weaker pricing power, weaker balance sheets, higher operating leverage, and greater exposure to cyclical production volumes. Morgan Stanley’s analysis shows that once a crisis is resolved, supplier stocks often become the biggest beneficiaries, reversing their prior substantial underperformance. Original equipment manufacturers have stronger pricing power than suppliers, but their resilience is not as strong as that of tire makers.

Tire makers remain relatively defensive because they have greater exposure to replacement demand, which keeps their cycle lower than that of original equipment manufacturers and suppliers. Morgan Stanley noted that, surprisingly, tire stocks still participated in the recovery, often rebounding strongly after downturns. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is an exception, because extreme cost inflation and supply disruptions led to weak tire performance, even though price transmission was ultimately achieved.

Compared with historical precedents, the current crisis has led to relatively limited downside in share prices, with shallower drawdowns and less obvious valuation downgrades. Morgan Stanley said investors should proceed cautiously, because history shows that the market’s initial reaction to energy shocks may underestimate the eventual impact, especially if oil prices remain high over a longer period of time.

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