I just came across something that fascinated me. Samuel Benner, an American farmer from Ohio, developed a system in the 19th century that predicts market cycles with impressive accuracy. And honestly, the Benner cycle model still works today.

It all started in 1873 when Benner went bankrupt due to the market panic at the time. Instead of giving up, he began researching and discovered something fascinating: markets move in recurring patterns. In 1875, he published his book describing how these cycles can be utilized.

What’s interesting is that the Benner cycle distinguishes three phases. First, there are the panics—times of extreme volatility when investors act irrationally and prices fluctuate wildly. Then come the good times with high prices, perfect for selling. And finally, tough times when asset prices fall and it’s a good opportunity to buy cheaply.

Benner was a farmer and understood natural cycles. He noticed that the 11-year corn and pig cycles corresponded to the solar cycle. This led him to the idea that cosmic cycles also influence economic cycles. The Benner cycle is also based on a 27-year iron price cycle with lows every 11, 9, and 7 years, and highs every 8, 9, and 10 years.

What impresses me is that the model predicted the Great Depression of 1929, the dot-com bubble of 2000, and the COVID crisis of 2020. That’s no coincidence. Over 150 years, the Benner cycle concept has repeatedly proven its validity.

Looking at the current situation, according to this analysis, we are in a difficult period—an era when asset prices are falling. This theoretically could be a good time to buy. Benner himself wrote under his chart: "One thing is certain." And that’s exactly it—the cycles repeat themselves.

It’s worth viewing market history through this lens. The Benner cycle theory shows that it’s not about luck, but about understanding patterns.