Countdown to the relocation of hundreds of trillions of yuan in deposits: How can residents seek value appreciation while maintaining stability in their financial management?

Ask AI · Why are “Fixed-Income+” products popular when hundreds of trillions of yuan in deposits are maturing?

On March 28, Beijing time, according to Economic Voice, China Central Radio and Television’s “Tianxia Caijing,” Wang Ying reported: Based on calculations by multiple institutions, more than hundreds of trillions of yuan in time deposits will mature densely throughout 2026. Recently, multiple mutual fund companies have locked onto the “Fixed-Income+” track, especially low-to-mid volatility products, trying to capture this wave of market dividends. With deposit interest rates continuing to run at low levels, where will this massive pool of money go? How can the “money bag” achieve value preservation and appreciation amid market fluctuations?

For 2026, it is a key milestone for wealth management among Chinese residents. The concentrated maturity of hundreds of trillions of yuan in time deposits, combined with deposit rates staying low, has caused the logic of “making money from money” to undergo a profound change. Where will this huge amount of capital flow?

Tian Lihui, Dean of the Research Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, analyzes: “It will mainly flow in three directions. One is toward relatively stable replacement assets—such as low-to-mid volatility ‘Fixed-Income+’ funds, high-rated wealth management and insurance products. These products absorb the stable-type funds that are seeking deposit alternatives. The second direction is equity allocation-type assets. Through index funds and active equity funds, the proportion of equities will be gradually increased to meet the need for capital appreciation. The third direction is tangible and alternative assets—gold, REITs, and the like have become new choices for diversifying risk.”

Among them, low-to-mid volatility “Fixed-Income+” products are becoming a key focus for mutual fund companies. So, can such products truly become the core alternative choice to deposits? Liaofeng Wang, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank of China, says: “In the context of deposit interest rates moving downward, low-to-mid volatility ‘Fixed-Income+’ wealth management products are more attractive to investors because these products use an asset allocation strategy of building a baseline with fixed income and enhancing returns with added exposure to other assets. While volatility is relatively small, the expected annualized return is clearly higher than that of deposits. However, investors need to note that low-to-mid volatility ‘Fixed-Income+’ products still belong to wealth management products; they carry the risk of net value fluctuations, which is different from the rigid redemption and payment characteristic of deposits.”

And this shift in understanding—from “principal and interest guaranteed” to “net value-based”—precisely reflects a deeper change in residents’ wealth allocation. Tian Lihui summarizes these changes into three points: “First, the shift from a single focus on real estate to diversified financial assets. In the past, residents’ wealth was highly concentrated in real estate; now, people are systematically increasing their allocation to financial assets. Second, the shift from the understanding of principal and interest guarantees to net value-based thinking. Investors are accepting a reality: the era of rigid redemption has ended, and net value fluctuations are the norm. Third, the shift from short-term gaming to long-term allocation. More and more capital is starting to plan investments with a 3-year or 5-year perspective, rather than chasing short-term hot spots.”

For asset management institutions such as mutual funds, these changes are both opportunities and challenges. Faced with an influx of massive capital, fund companies can no longer be satisfied with simply expanding scale; they must achieve a qualitative leap in their investment research and portfolio management capabilities. Tian Lihui says: “One is to be forced to enhance drawdown-control ability. Whoever can keep the maximum drawdown within customers’ psychological tolerance can truly hold onto this money. This will push the entire investment research and portfolio management system to upgrade from a pure return orientation to comprehensive risk-adjusted return management. Second is to be forced to improve multi-asset allocation capability. In the past, many fund managers were strong in a single asset class, but in the future they must become generalists. Third is to be forced to strengthen the customer-assistance and companionship capability. Fund companies need to do well in investor education and ongoing companionship. This is no longer just about ending after the product is sold; it requires full-lifecycle service.”

With changes in capital flows and upgrades in investment research capability, the overall landscape of the asset management industry will ultimately be reshaped profoundly. Looking ahead to the next 1 to 2 years, what new trends will emerge in the retail wealth management market? Wang Liaofeng believes: “First, the full implementation of product net value-based structures. Investors will need to adapt better to the norm of return fluctuations. Second, intelligent robo-advisory services will become more widespread, enabling better provision of personalized asset allocation plans. Third, more wealth management products tied to ESG and thematic investing will increase, better meeting investors’ diversified needs. Fourth, cross-border investment channels will broaden, and global asset allocation will become a viable choice for more investors.”

In response to these new changes in the wealth management market, how should investors adjust their own wealth management strategies so that they can preserve and grow wealth amid volatility? Wang Liaofeng recommends: “For the broad population of residents, first, you need to reduce overreliance on fixed income and accept reasonable volatility in investment and wealth management products, so as to seek better returns in investment and wealth management. Second, strengthen your learning of financial knowledge and understand the risk and return characteristics of different financial products. Third, make use of technology to leverage intelligent robo-advisory tools. Fourth, establish a long-term investing philosophy and pursue long-term returns through mechanisms such as systematic investing.”