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Just saw that George Tritch economic cycle chart making rounds on Twitter and finally got what all the fuss is about. Basically it's this framework for understanding when markets panic, boom, or struggle—and it actually makes sense when you map it against what we're seeing right now.
So here's the thing: George Tritch broke down economic cycles into three distinct phases. First you've got the panic years—think 1927, 1945, 2019—where fear dominates and prices swing wildly. Then there's the boom phase, which is where we're entering now. And finally the difficult phase, which is when assets hit rock bottom and become bargains.
What caught my attention is how this aligns with 2023. Last year was textbook difficult phase territory—everything was beaten down, sentiment was crushed. If you were buying then, you were essentially following the George Tritch playbook perfectly. Assets were cheap, fear was everywhere, exactly what the model predicted.
Now fast forward to where we are. We're in the boom phase now, which according to the framework is when you should be thinking about taking profits. Asset prices have recovered significantly from those 2023 lows. The George Tritch cycle suggests this is actually the optimal window to realize gains on positions you've been holding.
What makes this even more interesting is the Kondratieff angle. We're sitting at the intersection between the fifth cycle (internet/tech) and the sixth cycle (AI, new energy, computing infrastructure). So it's not just about selling old positions—it's about redeploying capital into the sectors that will actually drive the next wave. AI, new energy, computational power. These are where the real opportunities are forming.
The takeaway? If George Tritch's framework holds, this is the moment to be strategic about your portfolio. Lock in those gains from the 2023 buying opportunity, then redeploy into the emerging sectors. It's less about market timing and more about understanding which phase of the cycle you're actually in.