I've recently seen many discussions about whether gold is about to surge all the way up and if silver is finally going to catch up. To be honest, I've thought about this question too, but I’d rather first review the historical patterns.

Let's start with the first cycle. Between 1979 and 1980, the world was in chaos—oil crises, runaway inflation, geopolitical tensions, and currencies being repeatedly devalued. Against this backdrop, gold skyrocketed from $200 to $850, a fourfold increase. Silver was even more dramatic, jumping from $6 to $50. At first glance, it seemed like the beginning of a new order, but reality gave the market a big slap. Within just two months, gold halved, and silver lost two-thirds of its value. What happened next? An 20-year freeze.

After the 2010 financial crisis, the global money supply started to flood aggressively. The familiar story played out again. Gold surged from $1,000 to $1,921, and silver broke through $50 again. But the ending was equally brutal—gold retraced 45%, and silver was cut by 70%. The following years were a cycle of slow declines, sideways movements, and erosion of faith.

Looking at these two cycles, I’ve noticed a nearly physical law: the crazier the rise, the harsher the fall. And each time, there seemed to be perfectly reasonable logic supporting it—either runaway inflation, liquidity glut, or global order destabilization. The logic is always correct, but the timing is always the cruelest part.

So, is there anything different about this round of gold and silver rally? Actually, yes. Central banks are continuously increasing their holdings, de-dollarization is accelerating, and new narratives like AI and industrial demand are boosting silver. But what I think can’t be explained by models is another thing—current gold prices seem more like preparing for certain events that might happen around 2027. This isn’t trading logic; it’s expectation-based pricing.

Just look at some data. In the global gold reserves ranking, the US holds 8,133 tons (75% of its foreign reserves), Germany has 3,350 tons, Italy, France, and Russia follow closely, and China has about 2,304 tons, ranking sixth. Central banks are buying, private capital is entering, and ultra-rich individuals are positioning early. Everyone is doing the same thing—paying in advance for the worst-case scenario.

But what should ordinary people do? My advice is straightforward: don’t gamble. Nobody knows where the top is, and reckless all-in is essentially betting against history. And history has already given two answers—gold typically retraces more than 30%, and silver often starts with a 50% drop. The current market has clearly moved out of the historical volatility range.

One last point worth repeating: the more intense the rise, the greater the correction will be later. The market never owes you a rise, but it will test your preparedness with a retracement when you’re most confident.