Will exports in 2026 exceed expectations?

2026-04-04 02:52:50

Abstract generation in progress

The current global economic growth momentum is insufficient. Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise. Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, global supply chains are undergoing deep adjustments, and trade barriers are increasing. In the face of such a complex and severe external environment, China’s exports have nonetheless continued to demonstrate resilience and vitality beyond expectations. In 2025, the trade surplus reached $1.19 trillion, making China the first country in history to record a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion. In the first two months of 2026, exports were $11.9k, up 21.8% year over year. Export growth came in above market expectations, clearly accelerating compared with 2025, delivering a strong start. Will China’s export growth in 2026 still be able to exceed expectations?

The three short-term factors driving China’s exports to grow beyond expectations in 2026

Factor one: External turmoil is pushing up energy prices and global inflation expectations, stimulating overseas demand for Chinese-made products.

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